I find some useful website to finish my analysis.
- http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/
This is the basic and important website that I used. I can get price chart, volume chart ,quotes, daily settlements and other useful information that provide me current price pattern information.
2.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america.html
Also, I usually go to this website to know some information about policy change and agriculture market change, such as I konw the Russian (one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters) export restrictions and Japan (one of the largest wheat import countries) needs increase, these information can help me to analysis, then I can decide how to trade. For me, this is a useful website.
3. http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome
This is a United States Department of Agriculture website that I can get some agriculture market information, also world crops analysis ,reports and 2012 drought disaster updates.
In addition to these website above, I also from some other way to get some useful information, such as newspaper and magazines.
Hi Jessica, thanks for your sharing. I agree that it is important to look at the weather as the growth of the crops is affected by it. Actually, that’s what I started with too, by looking at the weather.
The US drought has caused huge concerns directly in the agriculture sector. When the supply is expected to be tightened, the price of the crops futures is more logically to rise. That’s what happened in the past few months until the price of corn futures (e.g. Dec 2012 contract) seem to plateau at some point where the price of corn futures start to have a downward trend [1] and it’s generally so for other corn futures contracts. On the other hand, the price of wheat futures (e.g. Dec 2012) also seems to plateau at some point and the price of wheat futures appear highly volatile afterwards[2]. For the price of other wheat futures that are future away, it still seems to have a upward trend, e.g. Sept. 2013[3]. I think these are interesting to look at and it’d be interesting to find out why the case. At the very least, I think, if/when we see a price trend, it will help with our predication of the upcoming prices.. (despite the volatility).
Further, it was reported by the news that there were rainfall at the beginning of the past week. That might cause the volatility of the prices. It seems that at the harvest time.. (now for corn and soon for wheat) the price goes with the harvest outcomes too. I guess we all need to pay attention to the daily reports about the harvesting. =]
1. CME Group. Corn futures Dec 2012. http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZCZ2&title=December_2012_Corn&type=p
2. CME Group. Wheat futures Dec 2012. http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZWZ2&title=December_2012_Wheat&type=p
3. CME Group. Wheat futures Sept. 2013. http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZWU3&title=September_2013_Wheat&type=p
Hi，Roson.Thank you for your reply. You give me a lot of uesful information. Weather is a important factor to think about, last week I consider
weather factor too much and ignore the other factor.So I think out of the weather reason, we also should pay more attention to the other aspects of the news, such as policies, news.