When browsing the Internet I got that private exporters reported the sale of 180,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China during this marketing year, the Agriculture Department said on Oct.5. The 2012/13 marketing year for soybeans opened on Sept. 1. The sale came one day after exporters said they had sold 21,000 tonnes of US soybean oil to China, also for delivery in 2012/13. So, in my opinion, the soybean will experience price increases in U.S. because the whole supply in U.S. will be low.
Also, I get some data in index mundi website, I know that from past 11 years, in September of each year, the highest price is in year 2012.
Date Price (US dollar per Metric Ton)
Sep-2002 208.22
Sep-2003 231.72
Sep-2004 206.47
Sep-2005 212.02
Sep-2006 199.31
Sep-2007 347.56
Sep-2008 437.84
Sep-2009 349.05
Sep-2010 390.23
Sep-2011 490.90
Sep-2012 615.18
I think September this yea, soybean price is much higher than in previous years, there should be a downward trend. Based on information above, I decide to choose short position soybean contracts in the next week. Of course, I will continue to focus on other information affecting the price of soybeans in the next fewer days. I hope I made the correct prediction.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/soybean.html
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=soybeans&months=120
Hello Jessica!
I see you have a good strategy for the next week. Especially, I like that you have inserted the data about the soybean prices in September over 10 years .
What I understand you want to take a long position (buy contract) because you are expecting a downward trend in soybean prices. However, in the first part of your blogging you said that because of the demand from China and the shortage of USA’s supply of soybeans, the soybean prices will increase eventually.
Could you please explain more how you are anticipating the shortage of supply in USA? I am also trading soybeans and I know that even though a weekly report from U.S. Department of Agriculture showed export sales of soybeans last week at 1.3 million tonnes above trade expectations for between 800,000 and 900,000 tonnes, there is still need for demand to drive prices higher because the late rains in Midwest in September helped soybean yields to strengthen. As a result, the supply USA’s soybeans is much more than expected; that is why there was a downward trend in soybean market. Furthermore, the market is anticipating that USDA’s upcoming monthly crop report which will be released on October 11 will announce positive harvest that will drop prices down; however, there also was freezing weather in main soybean regions in USA (northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota), so there is chatter that it slows down the harvest of soybeans; thus, it can affect in the soybean prices in a short term.
Cheers,
Gulsana
Briefly, if we look at the supply of USA’s of soybeans, it does not seem that there will be the shortage of supply and also South America is promising a good harvest.
In other words, I want to say that due to all these events, the soybean prices are going to be very volatile in near future. Anyway, the USDA’s Thursday report will clear it up for us.
Enjoy a long weekend, and Happy Thanks Giving Day!!!
HiGulsana，
You give me a lot of good sugestions， I just think USA is a big export country in the world and China is a top soy buyer in the world， if USA
supply is decreasing， China has a big demand for souybeans，I think Soybean price will be increasing. By the way， I saw a news that the World Bank cut its economic growth forecasts for the East Asia and Pacific region and said there was a risk the slowdown in China could worsen and last longer， do you think it will compact soybean price？I just want to get some opinions about this news. Thank you for your reply.
Sincerely,
Jessica
Hope things have been going well this week. I can see you’re improving. Keep up the good work!