AGWEB website is a very useful website, in this website you can get market news, crop information, weather information, especially, in this website, I can find three crop’s harvest map and planting map, I think it is a good source. This week, I read a good article in this website (http://www.agweb.com/blog/Current_Marketing_Thoughts_140/what_will_push_grain_prices_in_the_next_few_days/), it is a article about what will push grain price in the next few days.

http://www.agweb.com/soybean_planting_map.aspx

Agriculture website is also a place you can find market data, weather reports and market news. In my opinion, this website has a very detailed classification, we can find information that we want easily.

 http://www.agriculture.com/weather

 This website always my favorite website, in Brcoder I can easily find news and marketing trend. There are many articles and comments in this website, I can make a decision by collecting information there.

http://www.brecorder.com/

In the next week, I will choose to get November long position soybean contract. Even though soybean prices are too attractive, abundant rains and high prices are tempting Uruguayan farmers to plant a record soy area this season as the oilseed continues its march onto land previously used for grazing and other crops, in my opinion, planting will need more time to do. And now, in the market, the soybean price will be increase. The result is that more farmers will be attracted to plant soybean, the future price will be decrease in the end because of supply is bigger than demand.

In my trading process, I find that soybean is a very risky product. Because if predict success, I will make a lot of money, on the other hand, I will lose a lot of money. But I think it is a very exciting process, so I always pay more attention on soybean future market.

Last week I search the Internet and get a news that the US Department of Agriculture is expected to say this year’s US corn harvest was the smallest in six years and that corn supplies could hit 17-year lows by the end of next summer due to crop losses from the worst drought in over 50 years. An average of analysts polled by Reuters indicated the USDA would peg 2012 US corn production at 10.601 billion bushels, below the USDA’s forecast in September for 10.727 billion. The analyst average pegged 2012/13 US ending stocks at 648 million bushels, below the USDA’s September forecast for 733 million and global corn ending stocks for 2012/13 at 121.322 million tonnes, below the September outlook for 123.950 million. Light showers on Tuesday will cause minor slowdowns in harvesting the US corn and soybean crops while heavier rainfall by the weekend is seen stalling harvest. From this news, I think it means that the corn supply is less this year and demand is bigger than the supply, then I expect that the corn price will be increase. So, I choose 2 corn contracts on October 10^th and offset on October 11^th and I earn $1461.5*2=$2923.

In addition, I also choose 2 soybean contracts (short position) on October10^th and offset on October 11^th, because the USDA’s monthly report was expected to forecast the US soybean crop at 2.759 billion bushels, based on the average of estimates in a Reuters survey of 26 analysts. The average yield was seen at 37.006 bushels per acre, up 4.8 percent from a month ago, also have the last round harvest, from these information, I think soybean price will be continue decrease. Unfortunately, in the end I lost $876*2=$1752.

Date in   Date out     Contract   Position   Quantity    Price in     price out      Gain/loss

10-10-2012   11-10-2012     C2Z     long         2        741.25      770.5       1461.5*2=2923

10-10-2012   11-10-2012     S2X     Short        2        1537        1554.5      -876*2= -1752

This week I choose 2 long soybean contracts, I find soybean monthly price from March to September in CME group website, I find that from March to June, the soybean price is decreasing because of supply increase, but from September, the price is reduce. In my point, September is a harvest month, and now harvest should be almost over, part of the soybean will be stored. In this case, soybean prices will be rise.

I am exciting that I gain $3148 this week, although is virtual trading.

Date in   Date out     Contract   Position   Quantity    Price in     price out      Gain/loss

16-10-2012   19-10-2012     S2X     long         2       1510        1541.5       1574*2=3148

Reference：

http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZSX2&title=November_2012_Soybean&type=p#period=W;bartype=LINE

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/85465-cbot-soybeans-rise-on-tight-us-stocks-despite-larger-crop-.html

Every week, I always choose to get some information in CME GROUP website, I can get a lot of instant information there such as daily chart, quotes and so on.  And this is a very authoritative site.

 http://www.cmegroup.com/

 Also, I always willing to go to business recorder website. In this website, I can get some new policies, news, even some predictive information there. I think it is very useful .

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america.html

  In this week, I also go to index mundi website to get some data there to help me to make the right decision, such as I can get past 10 years soybean price there. We know that the historical data is also a key to the success, it is very important to help us.

 http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=soybeans&months=120

When browsing the Internet I got that private exporters reported the sale of 180,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China during this marketing year, the Agriculture Department said on Oct.5. The 2012/13 marketing year for soybeans opened on Sept. 1. The sale came one day after exporters said they had sold 21,000 tonnes of US soybean oil to China, also for delivery in 2012/13. So, in my opinion, the soybean will experience price increases in U.S. because the whole supply in U.S. will be low.

Also, I get some data in index mundi website, I know that from past 11 years, in September of each year, the highest price is in year 2012.

           Date               Price (US dollar per Metric Ton)

Sep-2002                    208.22

        Sep-2003                    231.72

        Sep-2004                    206.47

        Sep-2005                    212.02

       Sep-2006                      199.31

       Sep-2007                      347.56

       Sep-2008                      437.84

        Sep-2009                      349.05

       Sep-2010                      390.23

       Sep-2011                      490.90

       Sep-2012                      615.18

I think September this yea, soybean price is much higher than in previous years, there should be a downward trend. Based on information above, I decide to choose short position soybean contracts in the next week. Of course, I will continue to focus on other information affecting the price of soybeans in the next fewer days. I hope I made the correct prediction.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/soybean.html

 http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=soybeans&months=120

 http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/83958-exporters-sell-180000t-us-soybeans-to-china-for-201213-usda-.html

This week I got news that US soybean harvest was a record 38 percent complete as of Sept. 30, also weekly export inspections of soybeans were 41.699 million bushels, well above forecasts for 13 million to 16 million.  In addition forecasts called for near-ideal harvest weather in the US Midwest for the next 10 days, the harvest will still increase the supply of soybeans. Therefore, bigger-than-expected US soybean supplies is a very significant factor to let me chose a short soybean contract on Oct.3. In my opinion, the relationship between supply and demand is the basis of the entire market, the rapid changes in the relationship between supply and demand will play a role in the market price. At last, I win in this contract (realized gain is $ 3174), then on Oct.4, I think soybean price will still decreasing, I continue to choose 3 soybean contracts, hoping to earn more money. Unfortunately, I lost a lot of money in this transaction.

On the other hand, the United States will not run out of corn despite drought losses and tight beginning stocks, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on Oct.1. Then I choose a short corn contract.

Date        Contract     Position     Quantity     Gain/loss

10-3           C2Z         short        1           -1313.5

10-3           S2X         short        1           +3174

10-4           S2X         short        3          -2401*3

First, I still use GME Group website to get some basic information about future market, I can get different kinds of charts, graphs and data in this website.  Also, it always provides the most up to date prices of the crops, let me pay close attention to price change.

http://www.cmegroup.com/

Second, I find this website to get some business information, many factors lead to the price change, so I think I should collect more useful information to analysis.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/

Third, I still use business recorder website to help me to decision making. I can get America commodities information there.

http://www.brecorder.com

Also, I know some useful website from my classmate’s blog, such as :

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/(This is a website with up-to-date and comprehensive news on agricultural commodities.),

http://www.agrimoney.com/ ( I can get news about commodity, markets, some data in this website)

According to the USDA report published on Friday, September 28th, 2012, corn stocks went down. US corn and wheat stockpiles shrank far more this summer than grain markets thought, and corn prices zoomed higher on prospects that heavy demand and drought-decimated crops will keep markets tight ( the supply is less than the demand) . According to this report, I think more and more traders will choose to get a long future contract about corn, because they think corn’s price in the future will be high.

 Even though now is the season of harvest, drought is still serious, harvest situation is not optimistic. In addition, traders expect price will be rise in the future, therefore, I think corn’s price will still rise, but the price change is influenced by many factors, I should pay close attention to policy, news, reports, and then constantly adjust my prediction.

Reference:

http://commodities.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi=1/XJ&zTi=1&sdn=commodities&cdn=money&tm=20&gps=187_43_1366_673&f=00&tt=2&bt=1&bts=1&zu=http%3A//usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do%3FdocumentID%3D1079

For the seasonal harvest pressure, I think corn’s price will fall even though there is a drought in USA. Also, good harvesting weather is expected this week in the northern US Midwest while showers will slow harvesting in the south, we can get that the overall harvest trend is good. Therefore, I chose a short corn contract (C2Z) in this week, hoping corn’s price will be decreasing. In fact, in the first, corn’s price moving in the same direction as I predicted.

I thought the price of wheat will continue to fall, unfortunately the price is increasing in the next day. I do not know what happened? At last I lost money in this contract. Then I searched the Internet to get some answers about this result, I know that US corn and wheat stockpiles shrank far more this summer than grain markets thought, and corn prices zoomed higher on prospects that heavy demand and drought-decimated crops will keep makets tight. The supply is less than the demand, so the price is increasing.

I also chose a short soybean contract (S2X) in this week. I searched for the CME GROUP website to get the chart, I think soybean’s price is high enough, I predict that it will be a trend of decline.（chart：http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZSX2&title=November_2012_Soybean&type=p）

n addition, the harvest just started , the supply of soybeans in this week will be more, it leads to lower price than before. Therefore, I chose a short contract about soybean. At last, I still lost money.

Date in               Contract    Position    Price in   Gain/Loss

2012-09-26        Market          short       727.75      -1425

2012-09-28        Market          Short      1577          -1200

Reference：

http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZSX2&title=November_2012_Soybean&type=p

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-28/u-s-corn-stockpile-unexpectedly-drops-sparks-price-rebound-1-.html

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-09-28/business/chi-corn-prices-hit-limit-at-cbot-as-shrinking-us-grain-supply-shocks-market-20120928_1_corn-futures-don-roose-corn-harvest

I find some useful website to finish my analysis.

1. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/

This is the basic and important website that I used. I can get price chart, volume chart ,quotes, daily settlements and other useful information that provide me current price pattern information.

2.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america.html

Also, I usually go to this website to know some information about policy change and agriculture market change, such as I konw the Russian (one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters) export restrictions and Japan (one of the largest wheat import countries) needs increase, these information can help me to analysis, then I can decide how to trade. For me, this is a  useful website.

3. http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome

This is a United States Department of Agriculture website that I can get some agriculture market information, also world crops analysis ,reports and 2012 drought disaster updates.

In addition to these website above, I also from some other way to get some useful information, such as newspaper and magazines.