Generally speaking, in the short term, the price of soybean will increase again after the drop in this week. However, in the long term,  I think the general trend of this crop’s price is being smooth after several phased decrease .

I think the key point for forecasting the short-term performance of soybean is to judge the demand.Demand estimates likely will overshadow supply projections.

“Allendale (a forecasting and brokerage firm in McHenry) expects higher soybean demand to partially offset increases of 39 million bushels in beginning stocks and 139 million bushels in overall production. The firm expects USDA to increase ending stocks of soybeans to 137 million bushels from its September estimate of 115 million bushels.”

As we seen, soybean exports are fantastic. USDA’s (2012-13) export goals will be met in the first 5 to 6 weeks of the crop year. The question is how dramatic of a fall in exports do you factor in when South America’s crop comes on line.

South America’s new-crop soybeans will become available for export in March, but orders for the crop will be coming in over the next several months.

Therefore, because of the uncertainty of the main producer’s export volume, the relationship between supply and demand becomes much more tension, which will lead to a temporary increase in soybean market.

B.T.W. another point which is worth paying attention to in the coming days is the commercial speculation of the weather in South American producing area.