On Sept.4, Soybean prices reached a peak, the price of that contract declined to about $15.50 by the end of September and has been in a range of $14.86 to $15.74 since then. The price is currently in the lower half of that range.
The generally sideways pattern for soybean prices over the past month reflects conflicting fundamental factors. The most supportive factor has clearly been the very strong export pace. U.S. exports will be restricted to some extent this year due to the smaller supply.
On Nov. 9，USDA will release a new production forecast and a final estimate on January 11, 2013. On the other hand, the market anticipates a rebound in South American soybean production in 2013 that will provide ample supplies to support the increased pace of world consumption and to provide for exports of soybeans and soybean products to the U.S. if needed.
USDA currently forecasts 2013 South American production at a record 5.449 billion bushels, 1.212 billion larger than the 2012 harvest. That forecast will be updated monthly beginning on November 9.
The larger production expectation will be reflected by the lower price of soybean futures for the last half of the 2012-13 U.S. marketing year. Now, let’s wait for the Nov. 9th report.