This week， I made a wrong judgement about the soybeans market, which lead to a huge loss of  (-) $5750. I bought 5 contracts of S2X and kept it for a week, expecting it could reverse after the long bear market. However, the result turned to the opposite way— the soybeans’ price continued decreasing all week long.  Simultaneously, considering the same price trend of the soybeans and wheat, I sold one contract of wheat (W4K) for risk hedging. So the consolation is I gained (+) $1125 from this movement.

Now, my current equity is  $34383.98. My movement are as following:

1. 09/30/2012 Movement:

Went 5 longs on Nov. (S2X)

(Price in: $1573, Today’s Price: $1550)

2. 02/10/2012 Movement:

Went 1 short on wheat (W4K)

(Price in: $860.25, Today’s Price: $837.75)

Reason for the first movement:

On Sep 28^th, the USDA posted a news that “domestic soybeans inventories as of Sept. 1 were 169 million bushels, above the average analyst prediction of 132 million bushels”. After experiencing last week’s “fake news”, I thought the market would be more rational. What’s more I thought there must be a grace period after the news releasing. So I did such movement.

Reason for the second movement:

Two days have passed, but there was no sign of recovery in the soybeans market. I was a little worried about it, considering the similarity in the price trend of wheat and soybeans, then I went a short on W4K.

Until now, the price of soybeans and wheat are still going down. From the USDA’s report, there is a signal of higher yield of both corn and wheat, so I won’t offset  the wheat for the next week. Certainly, I’ll still keep eyes on the latest news.

Turn to the soybeans market, I was puzzled cause this crop’s price is really volatile. Latest news, along with the speculators, impacted this market a lot. So Is it the time that I should turn to another commodity? Can u guys give me some suggestions? Thanks~