Business forecasting is the ultimate no-win game. You’re almost always wrong—except on those rare, random occasions where actual sales come in exactly on forecast—and you get beat up routinely for your “lousy forecasts.” The question boils down to: Why do forecasts always seem to be so wrong…and sometimes so terribly wrong?

Mike Gilliland wrote in his blog why our forecasts are not as accurate as we would like them to be is because of unsuitable software. It is also possible that untrained or inexperienced forecasters misused it.

I, however, believe that technological problems do not play such a significant part in business forecasting. Forecasting should be a dispassionate and scientific exercise seeking a “best guess” at what is really going to happen in the future. A very qualified forecast is a guess  including every aspect that might happen in business. It is rather a guess than a number. A forecaster need accurate statistics of the business’s past to forecast. As long as there are no mathematical problems, the softwares are qualified.