As a result of my third week of trade, there’s no change in the trend seen till today. My portfolio value have losses of -1.87% and -2.46% in the bought of soybean and in the cover of wheat. Accumulating a -14.43% of return and finishing today with a portfolio value rounding 85000.

Clearly my strategy to look into the monthly trends had not paid off yet, or simply I was wrong.

Despite that in the case of soybean we have seeing increasing prices since October, they are still downward than the prices in early September. However one good sign is the change of trend. In fact, on August crop production report, the USDA, forecast smaller than expected soybean and corn crops fields (http://www.agweb.com), which can be one of the reasons in this increase of prices since October.

Now my bet is the corn. As we can see, the prices had been downwards since September 2012 and now they are slightly starting to increase. Apparently they are in the bottom of a cycle so it’s time to buy cheap and sell high (hopefully) in December. Right now, while US government has institutional problems, corn farmers had harvest just the 10% of their crops, which compared with the average 23% harvested in the past five years, is not a good sign (http://www.agweb.com). This could be one reason to anticipate price increases as a respond for the lower supply of the grain.