Week Five Review

The result of my five keeps the same results seeing till now. My portfolio return reaches -25% of losses.

Now the analysis of my positions and future decisions:

Related Wheat, every week I am more convinced that prices of wheat never will be below the price I fixed at beginning of September. There are no closer resistances or patterns that suggest prices will turn around in another downward tendency as shown between Nov 2012 and the end of Aug 2013, instead of that wheat futures for delivery in December added 0.7% to $6.86 a bushel on the CBOT, snapping a two-day decline, as we can see in the last candlestick marked in the graph.

I decided to cover mi position of ten contracts of wheat. This cost me at least 17000.

This decision it not only motivated for the history observed in the data. Recent news suggests that the availability of the grain could be reduced in the future because of delays harvests for weather conditions:

• “Wheat rose on concern that cold weather may harm crops in Argentina and excessive rain might delay harvesting in Brazil, boosting demand for supplies from the U.S., the world’s biggest shipper.” (Bloomberg.com)

Also because of the institutional problems in the U.S, the delay of the USDA export sales report is raising the uncertainty about future supply affecting the prices:

• “The government shutdown, which began Oct. 1, deprived investors of daily and weekly USDA export sales. The monthly reports on U.S. and world supply and demand for major crops including soybean, corn and wheat originally scheduled for Oct. 14 were canceled today, the agency said. The next update will be on Nov. 8.” (Bloomberg.com)

Now the evidence is suggesting buy wheat and soybean, although, the last patterns in the case of soybean are shown more uncertainty than a clear trend.

My strategy for now will be expect to see how soybean and corn prices will operate in the next days after take decisions and try to take long positions of wheat