The biggest chapter of my professional career has been written in India. I lived and worked in the Subcontinent for several years between 2006 and 2011. According to western numerology, that’s just 5 years, but for Indian economy it means something around a half a century.
I had a chance to see the country growing at a frightening pace. Meadows I used to cross to reach my office in Gurgaon, within a year or two started turning into India’s biggest business and outsourcing center operating in modern, twenty stories high glass buildings. India was sure on a rise.
In those busy days, people overwhelmed with the growth and potential of the economy seemed to completely have forgotten about the big crisis of 1991 when federal reserves depleted, Rupee depreciated against the dollar by over 30% within a year and country had to be bailed out by International Monetary Fund. Ironically, reforms introduced at that moment became the spark for the country’s boom in later years.
Over 20 years later, the author of those reforms is forced to face a similar situation. This time as a Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh is a captain of a ship which is dangerously heading towards the rocks of a serious economic slowdown. Rupee has depreciated by 16% since May and hit historical rock bottom against the dollar. Foreign investors, sensitive to even small hesitations in emerging markets and unsure of the condition and future of the economy, withdraw their funds which only increases the unpredictability at Mumbai Stock Exchange.
Indian government officials keep their poker faces on, but their somehow desperate actions suggest they very well realize the situation calls for drastic actions – restrictions on the money that can be transferred out of the country have been introduced, Indian Central Bank put a cap on daily borrowings and increased the interest rate at which it borrows money in an attempt to support the currency.
Hang on. According to which economy principles is this going to bring any positive results to the markets? Instead of opening up and remove barriers, India is telling the world that they are not only ‘not that welcome’ but once, tempted by much lower costs, decide to invest, they may face serious problems on their way out. Would you enter a budget restaurant knowing you may not be able to leave whenever you want?
Furthermore, the government does not seem to be noticing the burning problem of increased current deficit which gives right to ask serious questions about the health of the economy. In recent years, world have seen plenty of examples what can happen if national finances are imbalanced.
Lack of reforms, inability to take a strong and sometimes unpopular decisions, economical apathy over the recent fat years created a hiccup. Although nobody talks about crisis, with only 5% GDP growth in the last year, India may indeed be on the edge of a slowdown.
India doesn’t seem to have a realistic long term plan. No one can say if the country is heading towards self-sustainable, closed economy or rather a true member of open global trade. Society’s growing wealth also caused people’s ambition to demand certain rights and politicians, held on voter’s leash, don’t have a good history of assertive actions.
Feign actions will not bring any results. The country needs economical long term strategy followed with unpopular actions. “She” needs billions of dollars to keep the economy growing, needs its markets and industries open for foreign investors. After decades of protective approach, it’s not only an option but a necessity to let the fresh air of global players to enter the closed industries such as retail or airline markets. Regardless of local oligarchs’ protests, Indians should have the right to shop cheap at Wallmart or Tesco or pay less than $100 for 1 hour long domestic flight.
Bureaucracy and administrative barriers also play the trick – India ranks #136 out of 200 in ease of making business by the World Bank. According to Ravi Venkatesan, former Microsoft India CEO, the whole governance system of India is broken and need immediate actions to keep the growth from breaking (source: Fareed Zakaria GPS, CNN World).
PM Singh claims the situation is under control, yet gives no explanation to the cause or a possible solution to the scenario faced. Government believes there is no thread of the 1991 scenario to repeat; however seems to be forgetting the capital markets and foreign investors may have their own analyses and prediction and, in the long run, they can’t be stopped from hiding their money back in their pockets, packing their bags and leaving to a more sunny and less polluted destinations.
Country’s foreign exchange reserves can indeed be much higher than back in 1991, but this time, the collapsing Indian economy may also cause a much louder ramble to the entire business world.