According to my strategy and the theory of commodity market the price for wheat had to go down, however, it did not happened. Since my logic says me if there is enough (more than estimated) stock in the world market it should drive the price down. I took short position for wheat but I lost money. Almost all information that expert groups provided in the report implies that the price should go down. I guess only one possible explanation for this that all speculators and traders are buying stocks thus bid up the prices. I really do not understand why the changes in price in the real world do not obey to the rules that in the theory should work. So, my conclusion that more you try to predict the closest price for commodity drives you to give wrong estimation and makes you more confused.

Russia will end up this year with export rate more than 20million tonnes of sold abroad agricultural commodities (crop)- said the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. Also, Russia wants to sell its wheat to China and Europe.

Iraq bought 300 000 tonnes of wheat from the USA and Australia. The provider of wheat from the USA will be Glencore International AG and from Australia Viterra Inc. Australian Co-operative Bulk Handling Ltd which has been Monopolist in transporting and storing commodities, was deprived its monopoly rights. This company had control on transportation and storing of the agricultural commodities in Australia. France is shipping crop to Algeria from the Roan Port and its shipment rose by 2 times.

Australia got more wheat than estimated by domestic and the USA forecasters. 25.6m tonnes were harvested this year. Moreover, Australian wheat is less expensive than wheat from Black Sea Region and way cheaper than the USA wheat. NowadaysAustralia got more wheat than estimated by domestic and the USA forecasters. 25.6m tonnes were harvested this year. Moreover, Australian wheat is less expensive than wheat from Black Sea Region and way cheaper than the USA wheat. Nowadays, Viterra the largest company that exports wheat from Australia, has started to export wheat from South Australia and the first order to export is 3 million tonnes of wheat.

U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 30 million bushels this month as higher forecast winter wheat production is more than offset by lower area and production for durum and other spring wheat. Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 30 million bushels, with a reduced outlook for exports more than offsetting an increase in expected feed and residual use. Exports are projected down 50 million bushels with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries(Black Sea Region), where production prospects are raised. Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are nearly unchanged. The 2011/12 season-average farm price range is projected at $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel supported by higher projected prices for corn. Increased wheat production in FSU-12, India, China, and the EU-27 supports this month’s larger projected world production, trade, and ending stocks. U.S. export prospects are reduced by the strong competition and lower supplies. The US supply reduced by 30 million bushels this month. Exports are projected down 50 m bushels due to high competition from Black Sea Region, Australia and Europe. So, it means that wheat is available at high rate at current market. “Ukraine’s overall grain export potential is at a high level, 22-23 million tons, including wheat, barley, and maize”- said Director of the UkrAgroConsult Analytical Center Serhiy Feofilov predicted at a conference entitled “Black Sea Grain 2011”. All above mentioned should drive the world price for wheat) a bit down. , Viterra the largest company that exports wheat from Australia, has started to export wheat from South Australia and the first order to export is 3 million tonnes of wheat. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 30 million bushels this month as higher forecast winter wheat production is more than offset by lower area and production for durum and other spring wheat. Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 30 million bushels, with a reduced outlook for exports more than offsetting an increase in expected feed and residual use. Exports are projected down 50 million bushels with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries(Black Sea Region), where production prospects are raised. Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are nearly unchanged. The 2011/12 season-average farm price range is projected at $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel supported by higher projected prices for corn. Increased wheat production in FSU-12, India, China, and the EU-27 supports this month’s larger projected world production, trade, and ending stocks. U.S. export prospects are reduced by the strong competition and lower supplies. The US supply reduced by 30 million bushels this month. Exports are projected down 50 m bushels due to high competition from Black Sea Region, Australia and Europe. So, it means that wheat is available at high rate at current market.

“Ukraine’s overall grain export potential is at a high level, 22-23 million tons, including wheat, barley, and maize”- said Director of the UkrAgroConsult Analytical Center Serhiy Feofilov predicted at a conference entitled “Black Sea Grain 2011”.

All above mentioned should drive the world price for wheat) a bit down.

“The world reserve of agricultural commodities (crops) in period 2011-2012 is enough to meet and satisfy all demands of the world” – said an expert of UN Abdolreza Abbassian. He estimated reserve of this period for crops (506,6 million tonnes)

This year was plentiful for wheat in almost all countries that export this commodity. A sometime needed to export all wheat, so, I expect that the price for wheat will be stable or decrease through this month (but not increase) and in the end of this year the price will start to increase. Since wheat and corn substitute each other the price for both commodities will change in the same manner .

I don`t know whether my strategy is successful or not because I am not trading too often as you guys are doing. However, I do gain profits from time to time. Now my strategy is taking short position for wheat and corn.