{"id":11232,"date":"2025-01-06T10:28:54","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T17:28:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/?p=11232"},"modified":"2025-01-06T10:28:54","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T17:28:54","slug":"the-social-value-of-hurricane-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/post-11232","title":{"rendered":"The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>IOF SEMINAR &#8211; January 10, 2025<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>What is the impact and value of hurricane forecasts? We study this question using newly-collected forecast data for the universe of land-falling US hurricanes between 2005\u20132022. We find higher wind speed forecasts increase pre-landfall protective spending. Erroneous under-forecasts of wind speed increase hurricane damage and after-hurricane rebuilding expenditures. Our main contribution is a new theoretically-grounded approach for estimating the marginal value of forecast improvements. We find that the average annual improvement reduced total per-hurricane costs, inclusive of unobserved protective spending, by over $500,000 per county. Improvements since 2007 reduced costs by 19%, averaging $2 billion per hurricane. This exceeds the annual budget for all federal weather forecasting.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"300\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table width=\"300\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Dr. Renato Molina<\/strong><br \/>\nAssistant Professor<br \/>\nEnvironmental and Resource Economics<br \/>\nRosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science<br \/>\nUniversity of Miami<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Friday, January 10, 2025 &#8211;\u00a011:00am\u00a0 &#8211; 12:00 pm<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Over Zoom<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>IOF community members (students, faculty and staff) do not need to RSVP for this seminar series.<\/p>\n<p><strong>UBC members, alumni, and all others, RSVP REQUIRED:<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/oceans.ubc.ca\/rsvp-iof-seminar-2\/\">https:\/\/oceans.ubc.ca\/rsvp-iof-seminars\/<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IOF SEMINAR &#8211; January 10, 2025 The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts What is the impact and value of hurricane forecasts? We study this question using newly-collected forecast data for the universe of land-falling US hurricanes between 2005\u20132022. We find higher wind speed forecasts increase pre-landfall protective spending. Erroneous under-forecasts of wind speed increase hurricane&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18841,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3836],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18841"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11232"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11232\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11233,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11232\/revisions\/11233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/lfsgrads\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}