ALBERTA – ECONOMICALLY? ENVIRONMENTALLY?

“HOW EACH NATION ADAPTS TO A CARBON-CONSTRAINED WORLD WILL, TO A LARGE EXTENT, DETERMINE ITS FUTURE ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS AND ABILITY TO CREATE PROSPERITY FOR ITS RESIDENTS.”

—— The Climate Institute & E3G in “G20 Low Carbon Competitiveness”

INTRODUCTION

Alberta

As the largest natural gas producer of Canada and 4st producer of the world, Alberta, is also the first province creates a multi-sector regulation-based demand for carbon reductions, not only in Canada but also in the North America.[i] Several actions has been done by Alberta Government such as “Albertans and Climate Change: Taking Action” in October 2002 and “the Climate Change, Emissions Management Act” in 2007 and “Alberta’s 2008 Climate Change Strategy”.

 Alberta Emissions Profile

Source: http://www.ec.gc.ca/Publications/A07097EF-8EE1-4FF0-9AFB-6C392078D1A9/NationalInventoryReportGreenhouseGasSourcesAndSinksInCanada19902009ExecutiveSummary.pdf

Alberta has become the largest GHG emitting province in Canada, emitting more than 200 Mt in 2009, which is an increase of almost 100 Mt compared to the emission amount in 1990. It is due to the increase is an increased production of petroleum resources for export markets.[ii]

Source: http://environment.alberta.ca/0915.html

Its emission is closely related with the energy industry in the province. According to Alberta’s emission profiles in 2008, emission from energy sector which includes coal, oil, and gas, oil sands, and electricity, accounts for 62% of the total emissions. [iii]

Climate Change Action

Alberta’s 2008 Climate Change Strategy indicated that their target reduction in GHG emissions is a 50 per cent reduction by 2050, compared to business as usual, or a 14 per cent reduction below 2005 levels by 2050.

Alberta, the first province to develop legislation regulating GHG emissions, has developed four approaches to reduce GHG emissions:

  • Reduction Program (Specified Gas Emitters Regulation)
  • Reporting Program (Specified Gas Reporting Regulation)
  • Alberta-based Carbon Offset Market
  • Climate Change and Emissions Management Fund

According to the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation, which took effect on July 1st, 2007, Alberta Environment required all facilities in Alberta emitting over 100,000 Mt of CO2e per year to reduce 12% of their emissions intensity every year. The facilities have 4 available options, which listed below:

  • Demonstrated Emission Reductions
  • Contributions to the Climate Change Fund
  • Purchase of Alberta Based Offsets
  • Purchase of Emissions Performance Credits from another facilities in Alberta

Since “Contributions to the Climate Change Fund” has the same function as a carbon tax, and “Purchase of Alberta Based Offsets” and “Purchase of Emissions Performance Credits” belongs to the province’s carbon offset market, our discussion will focus on those three topics.[iv]

CARBON TAX – Climate Change and Emissions Management Fund

Policy Description

As one of the alternative compliance of SGRE, the Climate Change and Emissions Management Fund requires companies who didn’t meet the provincial reduction target for GHGs gas emissions can choose to pay $15 a tonne into the Fund for emissions they are required to reduce, which means a maximum 12% of last year’s emission paid by $15 a tonne.

The Fund will be used as a support of the development and application of transformative technologies as well as improving Alberta’s ability to adapt to climate change, which is part of Alberta’s Climate Change Strategy (CCS).

Climate Change and Emissions Management (CCEMC) Corporation is collecting the Fund Money and holding activities.

Comments

From one hand, based on the special majority category of industry in Alberta, the government of Alberta sets the tax at $15 per tonne only for the exceed emissions is quite reasonable. Compared to British Columbia’s carbon tax of $25 per tonne on every tonne of GHG emission as of July 2011[v], companies in Alberta benefits from the low tax and making much appropriate economic benefits.

From the other hand, Economists and environmentalists claim that this kind of carbon tax is too low to make the companies realize how severe the situation of GHGs emission is. It is also hard to change their way of producing. Companies are rather paying money than reducing their emissions, which may cause more damage to the environment.

CAP-AND-TRADE – Alberta-based Carbon Offset Credit System

Policy Description

Options of purchase Alberta-based offset credits and purchase or use Emission Performance Credits (EPCs). Alberta-based offset credits are considered as cap-and-trade system. Offsets are GHG emissions reductions occurred by facilities that are not covered by the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (i.e.: those facilities emitting less than 100,000 tonnes CO2e per year). Credits must be created using protocols approved by the Alberta government. These emission reductions qualify as offsets when they are registered with the Alberta Offsets Registry and can be sold to facilities that need for their emissions reduction target. Examples of government-approved protocols are: decomposition of Agricultural materials, Instrument Gas Conversion to Instrument Air, and Wind Power Electricity. As of October 2011, there were 32 approved protocols, of which 12 were under development.

Emission Performance Credits (EPCs) are GHG emissions reductions allowance occurred by facilities that are covered by the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation (i.e.: those facilities emitting less than 100,000 tonnes CO2e per year) when they reduce its emissions below their limit.

RESULTS

After four rounds of compliance year since Alberta’s action on climate change, 23.8 Mt of emissions were avoided, $257 million dollars were contributed to the Climate Change Emissions management Fund, and 11 Mt of offsets were used.

 

Source: http://environment.gov.ab.ca/info/library/8416.pdf 

FINDINGS 

  • The government of Alberta realized the importance of green gas emission and started series of actions in a very early time, which make the system much more efficient after long period observation and improvement.
  • Regulation requires for facilities that emit more than 100,000 tonnes (0.1 Mt) CO2e per year to reduce their emissions per unit GHG output by 12% every year. It regulates facilities that emit more than 50,000 tonnes only need to report their emissions amount.
  • Exemption: A new facility that have completed its first year of commercial operation on or after December 31, 2000,[vi] has lower target of 2 per cent per year starting in its fourth year of operation. Facilities that emit lower than 100,000 tonnes are not required to reduce their emissions under regulation. It creates a facility, of which emission level is significant, has an incentive to move its operation to Alberta because it might face higher emission reduction cost in other province such as in British Columbia. As a result total amount of GHG emission will rise.
  • Cost Effectiveness: In principle, when all firms and households face the same carbon tax over space and time, costs are minimized. Carbon policy in Alberta regulates only large emitters. Furthermore, compliance requires only 12 per cent of emissions that regulated facilities emit. So the policy does not appear to achieve cost minimization because it does apply to every emitter and the tax rate is not the same.
  • It is quite easy for us to observe that government of Alberta is trying to get much more economical benefits in the case of partially losing its environmental benefits according to the over low carbon tax they applied.
  • Trade-off between economic growth and GHG emissions: A study shows that with 2 ˚C emissions target, Canada can achieve emissions reduction of 25 per cent below the 1990 level by 2020, and its annual GDP growth will be 2.1% between 2010 to 2020. However, with business as usual, the annual GDP growth will be 2.4% and GHG emissions will rise to 47 per cent above the 1990 level.[vii]
  • Distributional effect: British Columbia’s carbon tax policy considers distributional effect of the tax revenue such income tax credit based on the income level. However, the Alberta policy does not appear to have consideration of distributional effect as it outlines that the revenue form the contribution to the fund is invested in research and development. Then the low income individuals continue to bear a disproportionate burden because industries will pass on most of the carbon tax to consumers. the increased burden from   society will get benefit from the technology improvement in the long run, but price increase such as in gasoline or electricity  will be passed on to individuals no matter the rich or the poor, which means a disproportion.

[iii] http://environment.gov.ab.ca/info/library/8416.pdf

[iv] http://carbonoffsetsolutions.climatechangecentral.com/policy-regulation/alberta-offset-system

[v] British Columbia, 2008_Budget_Fiscal_Plan.pdf

[vi] http://www.environment.alberta.ca/documents/Baseline_FAQ.pdf

[vii] http://pubs.pembina.org/reports/economics-factsheet.pdf
[viii] GHG Emission Verification in Alberta www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conference/ei18/session7/bolechowsky.pdf


Week 10’s Trading Strategy – Finally, We get here!

30842.5 – This is what I get after all these 10 week’s trading game. Not that bad, hmm? I like this Mediocre number, just like myself. But trust me, it is not the only thing we get from all these 70 days. How we search for information? How could those news affect world market? How to organized a blog article? How to make your Tweets attractive? The way we work with each other. The friendship between you and me… Thanks to Jim, to provide this opportunity to improve ourselves. We all know that it was hard but still, I am so grateful and I am survived.

Trading Strategy for this week

I keep using the way I summarized my prediction for this week, which I found it is really helpful. I also made a suggestion to my dear classmates even I am not sure if it is work for you guys or not.

My balance finally back up to 25000 since last week, and I decided to bid cautiously, which means to keep my holding contracts controllable, to leave myself a very happy ending. Fortunately I made it. And forgive me, I offset all my Soybean contracts by the end of last week and didn’t even start it because I am so lack of experience to dealing with a board which is approaching the contract expire date.

For Nov. 15th

The November Crop Report which released by the Agriculture Department the day before showed a tight supply and strong demand would affect the Corn market at the same time, which will definitely push the market price up. The I took a 2 long position on Tuesday, expecting a uptrend would show up in the Corn’s price.

On the other hand, I encouraged myself to step into the Wheat Board in the very last week because I understand the balance shows in my sheet is not more important than the things I would learn from it. Forget those over self-respect, I don’t care how much I am going to loss. 1 little short contract I took because of the news about U.S. wheat supply boost.

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn 0 -2  -2 UP Up
Soybean  –  –
Wheat 0 1  1 Down Up

For Nov. 16th

I am not surprised to make myself as a failure in Wheat Board anymore. Maybe next time I should just took the opposite action other than what I predict. (Haha, just joking)

It was a big jump yesterday in Corn Market then I believe the market power it going to fix it the day after, that’s why I took 2 offset position also another short one. And it worked.

For Wheat, The impact causing by the supply change didn’t show up the day before, which I believe I should take another short position and waiting for it falls.

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn -2  3 1  Down  Down
Soybean  –  –  –
Wheat 1  1 2  Down  Down

For Nov. 17th

From the MACD chart of Corn Board, we can easily observe a different trend is showing up compare with the beginning of the week. But there’s not that much news to support my prediction and also technical analysis didn’t work well these 3 weeks, i decided to hold my position before my next move.

I didn’t expect I can earn any money from Wheat board, that’s why when I found I am not losing money I feel so happy and cannot wait to get out of the market. But it was proved that if I can be patient, trust myself and waiting for another day, thing might be different, I may enjoy my first earning in wheat board. I also found the news about supply boost after I bid, which making myself understand I might make a wrong decision again.

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn 1  0 1  Down  Down
Soybean  –  –
Wheat 2  -2 0  Up  Down

For Nov. 18th

I earn a large amount of money from Corn even I didn’t expect the huge collapse on Thursday though. It is the last day of trading game, and I just want to offset all my contracts and make this happy ending. I also believe the market somehow should gonna fix itself up after that huge a collapse. However, I was wrong about that. Price keep dropping but however I already locked my money in my pocket.  (^_−)−☆

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn 1  -1 0  Up
Soybean  –  –
Wheat 0  0 0  Up

Marginal Balance:

Resources:

[1] http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/soybean_contract_specifications.html

[2] http://southeastfarmpress.com/markets/tight-stocks-strong-demand-continue-corn-market

[3] http://www.aginfo.net/index.cfm/event/report/id/Market-Line-20640

[4] http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-17/wheat-declines-as-harvests-may-boost-supply-weather-aids-crops.html

Week 9 Trading strategy (Nov.7-11)

 

Things really getting better, at least my balance right now is more than the amount when we start. I learn from others last week to make a form and record each days prediction, which is really a good way to make your strategy clear.

For this week, after Monday’s expert’s meeting, we found the currency trend is being not that clear. There was different forecast from the demand and supply side and the technology analysis. Then I bravely guess that U.S. currency change may not influence the market as that much as before.

Also, on general, “Technical indicators do not work well these days as well because the fast and slow moving averages are near to each other and every movement in prices is probable in this situation.”, according to Hossein.

My situation from last week is 2 short contracts in Soybean and Wheat respectively.

For Nov. 7th

Since Corn price remained supported by strong demand from ethanol producers, I took 2 long position to start my corn board of this week.

After last Thursday’s huge increase of Soybean, which causing by the pressure of Argentine soy-processing’s strike, I believe that the price of soybean somehow will back down to its original price in the next week, which makes me keep holding my short contracts and waiting for the “bottom”.

Wheat board being not clear, Not that much information which makes me decided to stay where I was and see what’s going on Monday. Also, It’s also means Market won’t change that much (may keep decreasing) to me.

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn 0 -2 -2 Up Down
Soybean 2 0 2 Down Down
Wheat 2 0 2 Down Up

For Nov. 8th

The drought happened in the U.S. somehow will decrease the supply of global Corn Market, which will keep pushing the increase price of Corn.

Current low price is driving Aussie wheat exports to the record. It is also showed that wheat price may decline after four days increasing because of the winter-wheat crop condition in the U.S. improved, which reduced the risks of yield loss.

DID NOT CHANGE MY POSITION ON TUESDAY.

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn -2 UP Up
Soybean 2 Down Up
Wheat 2 Down Up

For Nov. 9th

I felt that I should never step into wheat board again! I was keeping loss money on wheat board during the whole trading game. Even I change my strategy and trying to put most of my energy in wheat area, my prediction just keep opposite with the actual moving…

I finally decide offset my wheat contracts after that huge lost the day before and will be really cautions on wheat board.

On the other side, Brazil Soybean supply hit its record, which will keep pushing the soybean price decrease.

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn -2  -2 UP Down
Soybean 2  2 Down Down
Wheat 2 -2  0 Up Down

For Nov. 10th

To play safety, I offset all my corn contract to protect the profit I already get. My plan is to waiting for the market trend being more clear and re-enter the Corn board next week.

For soybean, the impact of supply already causing a slump, and I believe this decreasing trend impact may keep for another day. Then I took another short position in Soybean.

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn -2 2  0 Down  Down
Soybean 2 1  3 Down  Down
Wheat 0  0 Up  Down

 

For Nov. 11th

In the precious day, soybean price reach a really low level – 1158, which is even the lowest in the recent month. I believe there should be a bounce after reaching such a low level. Offset for now, prepare for the last fight in the next week.

Holding Successful Bid After Prediction Actual Move
Corn 0 0  0 Down  Down
Soybean 3 -3  0 Down  Up
Wheat 0  0  0 Up  Down

Margin Balance:


Resources:

[1]  http://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grain-futures—weekly-outlook%253A-november-7-11-226494

[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/drought-damaged-u-s-corn-crop-pressuring-global-food-supply-commodities.html

[3] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/wheat-may-drop-for-first-time-in-four-days-on-u-s-crop-outlook.html

 

[4] http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-09/grains-soybeans-slump-on-supply-gains-european-economic-woes.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading Strategy for Week 8

It seems things getting better than last week, even the price of all those three commodities is still in the Adjusted Phase and keep fluctuating through the whole week. I changed my strategy from long-term prediction to a short-term one since I found my long-term prediction not work very well since the high variability of market.On the contrary, short term predict worked well and good for learning just as what I did at the first several weeks.

For Corn

From the data I got previous showed that corn price will increase. Also from this weeks’ news,  we know corn global supply becoming tighter since the costs doubled.Price gonna be further higher as the supply decrease and demand increase.

At the same time, the Technical Analysis becoming not that clear this week, from both MACD chart and KDJ chart, the trend cannot give that much suggestion.

I held a short contract at the beginning of this week since I made a wrong prediction in Corn board last week. After a realized the uptrend is being clear, I took a offset and another long position On Nov. 2nd and entered the market successfully. Even price has been a huge collapse on that day, it fixed up the two days followed.

The corn trend is being not easy to predict, to play safety, I decide to offset my current situation and see what will it going from next Monday.

For Soybean

Soybean trend for this week is quite easier to predict. Downtrend is obvious which we can see from the U.S. Expert demand decrease. Even at the beginning of this week, professional technical analysis experts keep saying that there is a buying signal of soybean, the increasing trend of US currency somehow must cover up other impact and pushing commodity price dropping.

After bidding 2 short on Tuesday, I offset one of them the day after to prevent the risk of loss. After I read the further information of Exchange rate trend, I believe soybean may decrease for a while and ending this week by holding 2 short contracts.

For Wheat 

Wheat is just not that simple and it’s always the hardest one for me to predict. I finally decide to be really cautions in Wheat Board. I tried to take a short position since the down trend of currency is obvious and did earn some profits at the beginning. Somehow, on November 3rd, it’s starting increase as well as the commodity news saying the long term upping trend. I am still holding 2 short contracts and again starting to wait for the turning point or the stop-bleeding point to get out of the market. LoL.

For the Next week

According the currency exchange trend, MACD chart and Greek Weekend Fears, the US dollar may keep increase in the next week and keep pushing commodity price down in general. By the scope may be not that huge since the adjust phase may also keep in the next week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Picture resources: Layne Hermansen – InsideFutures.com

Margin Balance:

 

Resources:

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/archer-daniels-midland-profit-misses-estimates-on-tight-u-s-corn-supplies.html

[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/china-record-corn-crop-still-failing-to-meet-demand-for-feed-commodities.html

[3] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-28/soybeans-fall-as-improving-south-american-crops-may-cut-u-s-export-demand.html

[4] http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/4/167528043.html

[5] http://www.agrimoney.com/news/china-datapoint-signals-soybean-price-rises-ahead–3785.html

[6] http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-europe-greece-voxpop-idUSTRE7A36M420111104

A whole new start – week after Midterm

Before the Midterm week, I successfully offset all my contracts and want to have a fresh new start after that.

Then i begun this week’s trading game from reading every Wiki Expert’s suggestion. My exchange rate group have a conclusion that U.S. Dollar will decrease in the first 2-3 days of this week, then having a bound up if the EU summit meeting fails. Unfortunately, EU summit meeting on Oct. 26th cancelled the day before.

Seems like all the other experts group hold the same opinion that the commodity price will decreased. However, in the previous week, currency rate make a most impact of the price. That’s why i choose to follow Exchange Rate’s conclusion and made a decision by taking a long position For Tuesday(Oct. 25th), and planning to offset the day after.

For Wednesday(Oct. 26th), it seems my information was a little bit delay, commodity price is starting decrease on Tuesday, then i quickly offset my contracts but unfortunately i bid at a too high prices on Soybean and Corn (same mistake i was made at the first several weeks) and failed. There was a huge collapse on Wednesday. For wheat, I saw the J line strongly go through K last week, which means price may rising for a wile. Unfortunately, that predict was wrong.

For Tuesday(Oct. 27th), I was keep trying to offset my long position and take the lesson from yesterday, bid at a appropriate price, finally bid successfully and get out of the bleeding situation. End with holding 1 short contract on Corn.

I actually also read technical articles on Wednesday which saying there’s a buying signal for soybean up to 1320. Compare with my own analysis, I believe that rising trend may happened next week or even later. I started thinking about if all the “expert articles” really helps, which means we can’t just follow them but have to have our own thought and then take their’s suggestion.

For Friday(Oct 28th), I found myself didn’t find the inspiration of bidding this week, make a lot of mistake and keep making wrong decisions. End this week with holding one short contract on Corn because I believe corn’s decreasing in long trend is obvious and hope I can do better next week.

Conclusion

Long term prediction is really not work since the impact factor changes a lot and you just never know when it’s gonna happened. I probably changed my long term prediction to a short one, hope do not loss money on that anymore.

Also, the price might keep rally in the coming week… I should be cautions and see where the markets gonna heading to…

Margin Balance:

 

Week 5’s Trading Strategy

Preface

I have to say my trading strategy for this week is total a messy…

According to Jim we can still trade for Oct. 10th, the Thanksgiving long weekend since the U.S. market still open on that day. Then I made a “perfect” decision and submit it on google Doc. However, I didn’t realize there is no list for Oct. 10 and fill the prices and quantities in the Oct. 11th line instead. My original plan was not to change my position on Tuesday(Oct 11th), that’s why I didn’t realize it until I was trying to bid for Wednesday.

After I found out what I did, I already lost over 8,000 dollars and no way to fix it. And I also don’t know how to fix my strategy after having an unreasonable successful bidding at an unreasonable price.

Sometimes things happened unexpectedly, and we still have to face the reality. Thanks god it’s just a game this time. Anyhow, I decided try my best to earn the money back. Since I already set my mind to offset all my contracts at the end of this week and concentrate on my Mid-term next week, I think the least thing I can do it’s to survive this week peacefully.

Since there was no strategy which actually working on this week’s trading, I will briefly press some thoughts I originally plan.

================================================

From the previous weeks’ trading, I found myself is too much depended on Technical Analysis. Then this week, I decided learn more information from other aspects and combine it with Technical and make decisions.

For Corn,

Even Corn has already gain the most in the previous five weeks, I believe the corn price will still rising on low global inventory causing by the natural disasters and higher Chinese demand.

Also, from the KDJ Technical Chart, which I already showed in last weeks blog, the rising trend is being obvious. BTW, the backward of Corn’s RSI showed up, which means there must be a solution of the oversold situation since such a long time (which started from middle of September).

Therefore, I made a decision to offset all those short contracts I held and changed my position into long.

For Soybean,

Several Classmates told me that soybean price will keep dropping in the next week, while I still believe the soybeans price will bound up since the demand is rebounding.

Also, the MACD still showed that soybean price will somehow bounced up in the next week. To play safety, I also decide offset part of my short position.

For Wheat,

Not that much news on wheat those days other than the flood effect from Thai and from the technical analysis, I also cannot have a clear predict. Since I lost huge money in wheat board in the past few weeks, I did lost my confidence in wheat board. I finally decided took my classmates’ opinion and offset all my wheat contract then take a short position, since the currency may keep influence the price.

==============================================

After I made the mistake on bidding sheet, I used one day to figure out where myself is and take a quick action to fix it.

1. Quickly change my Corn and Soybean situation from short to long to stop losing profit. Since I got more confidence in Corn’s uptrend, I took 2 long position in corn and 1 in soybean.

2. Offset all my wheat contract and wait for the next round start. Do not take any action with a messy head.

3. Made a decision that I have to offset all of my contract by the end of this week and try to start over with a whole new life from the week after Mid-term. I believe It will help me to learn more.

================================================

Margin Calculate

Resources:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-05/corn-soybean-futures-rebound-in-chicago-on-speculation-demand-will-rise.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/china-may-not-rush-to-buy-corn-from-u-s-grains-council-says.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/food-prices-to-remain-high-price-swings-to-continue-fao-says.html
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/thai-flooding-buoys-rice-and-sugar-prices–3698.html

 

Week 4 (OCT. 3 – OCT. 7)

According to the previous technical analysis, we can give the forecast that the market of this week won’t change that much. Then I choose to set my positions up and not to move a lot in this week.

And the reality just showed my predict was right. The market fluctuate a little bit and the price didn’t change that much.

For Soybean, from MACD chart we can obviously see that the price must keep decrease in the previous week. However, it makes the short positions becoming more dangerous in the coming week.

Price has already reached 1161 by the end of today.  Even there’s several “experts” believe that soybean price may keep decrease until 1,000. I probably gonna watch it tightly and prepare to offset my short position when MACD reach the balance.

For Corn, It’s really strange that J line fluctuated around K line for such a long time in KDJ chart. Also, there’s no any indication about the huge price-dropping which happened on Thursday. It makes me have to re-design my strategy from the beginning. And the new MACD from Thursday shows that a new dropping turn around.

For Wheat, I am such a stubborn girl who believed that the price of wheat will somehow back again without any suspicion!!! Even most of my classmates warn me about the wheat price probably will never up to its original price, also Andrew said the impact of US dollar currency upward, which causing by Euro Crisis is much larger than the others’.

Anyhow, right now I believe wheat board will meet its another round of collapse. Since the MACD and KDJ chart shows a new decrease period, especially when I saw the purple J line strongly go through the white K line. I didn’t expect to this “double decrease” which rarely happened in my previous experience, and obviously I was wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For now, I finally decide to offset all my long contracts in wheat on next Monday, if there’s no any other news about wheat distract my determination.

Margin Calculation:

 

 

Week 3 (Sep. 26 – Sep 30) Trading Strategy

Strategy WK3

After the huge collapse and sustain decrease in all this three categories’ market from  Sep. 6th, we finally reaching the “Adjustment Phase” during this week.

Even all the Wiki Exports indicated a bearish in grain future market in the short run, I personally believe that, prices may stay steady during this week, Since the USDA Grain Stocks report will come out on the end of this week (Sep. 30), people may prefer play safety before that.

From Technical point of view, it is obviously that all of Corn Soybean and Wheat is around the oversold situation, which means price must back up in the long term. However, we cannot deny that both Soybean and Corn is still in the Drop Channel. For Wheat, combine the former MACD and KDJ chart with Relative Strength Index, I personally believed that wheat has already get rid of the Drop trend and probably going up at the end of this week.

For Monday:

Finally successfully went 2 short in Wheat @ 634 to stop bleeding.  Holding another 2 long contract and waiting for the price back up.

Still holding nothing in Corn, took a break and look.

For Tuesday: 

Decided to get into the Corn market again because according to the chart, downward trend is being clear.

Corn      -3      @ 646

For Wednesday:

Tried to offset in Corn and Soybean and went long, but unfortunately didn’t enter the market by 0.15 higher than “today’s highest”.

Corn      5      @    650.75

Soybean      3       @    1262

Wheat        -1      @      643

For Thursday:

Miss the daily Due Time!!  @ @   Lost control in Time Management. Forcing myself accept the mistake by not to change the bid form after 0:00 a.m. Another kind of learning experience!

For Friday:

To play safety, offset part of Corn. Realize that Soybean is still in the middle of Drop Channel, also wheat’s upward trend showed clearly in chart.

Corn     1      @ 636

Soybean      -2       @ 1231

Wheat       2       @ 667

Benefit Calculation: 

In case that I cannot be home before midnight Friday (Since I am going my first visit to Victoria *\(^o^)/*), I am posting the Calculation part without Friday’s. I’ll stick it on right after I back home!

 

Final Balance Calculate Update:

 

Lost a huge profit since I typed wrong number in Soybean contract by -2, which is suppose to be 2. @ @

Hope you guys have a great weekend! Good Luck for next week!!

 

 

 

Week 2(Sep. 19 – Sep.23)

I believe this week is gonna be a very tough week for me since I changed my strategy for a little bit. I found that we can always learn more by trading day by day then I decided to have a short-term trading strategy, which maybe exhausted but fun! In case I probably gonna forget what my daily strategy is when Friday’s coming, I am writing it day by day just to explain (especially to myself) why I did this… (*_*)

Pls let me know if you think my strategy is heading to a wrong direction. Thank you all for taking time to point it out.

Monday (Bid @ 21:00, Sunday)

I did a long position for 1 both in Corn and Soybean. I was thinking of playing safety, since I entered the mkt at the very first day at a price of 719 for Corn and 1382.2 for Soybean, I thought it seems like a right time to offset a little bit. Then I sold Corn @ 693 and Soybean @ 1356.

I actually made a mistake by the price since I should set a lower price when I am doing a long position. It’s already too late when I realize it. However, it is the main reason I can changing my safe strategy a little bit since I do wanna fix this lost by the future action.

BTW, I also tried to get a short in wheat @ a pretty high price, like gambling, anyhow I failed by a price of 698, which is around 7 dollars higher than the daily highest.

Tuesday (Bid @ 23:59, Monday – the very last minute, submit in hurry)

Today’s strategy is more complicated, or should I say I’m putting myself into dangerous.

From all the resources I got, as well as Wiki MFRE and friends Twitter, they all showed the grains commodity price is going down.

For now I just realize that it doesn’t means we have always to did a long position when trends up, or short when trends down. All your actions are depending on your OWN strategy. This is probably the most significant thing I learn for now…

You can still earn money even a huge amount of money when you are in a difficult position, which makes the future trading different from Stock market, also much more interesting!!!

———————–

My situation is, Since the day I got -3 wheat @ 695, the price of wheat keep falling down. I actually set myself a “stop loss price” @ 680, but by the day price did lower than it, I just so hesitate to cut it.

I then changed my situation, I did another long position in wheat @ 672.25, even I am not sure if I can make it succeed or not, the reason I did this only because I wanna sell 2 or three of them (I got long 4 in total) by the day after around a higher price, to somehow partially less the lost in wheat.

By the time I act dangerous in wheat, I tried a safety strategy in corn. Did a long position @ 693 to offset all corns, protect the profit I already got.

To Soybean, 2 more short @ a pretty high price – 1363, hope I can enter the market with a reeeeally good luck!

 

Wednesday (Bid @ 22:00, Tuesday) 

Summary for Tuesday,

  • Failed to getting into Soybean market since I bid a really high price in short position. But because of 1363 is my ideal price for soybean for this turn, also the soybean price probably going down, I am not going to change it, just to bid for another day.
  • Corn’s closing price a little bit lower than what I bid, but only for playing it conservatively, I still satisfied by what I did.
  • Wheat strategy a little complicated since I already lost lots of money in wheat. Went long @ the price of 672.25, earn a little bit by the end of day, gonna sell it the day after, hopefully at a nice price.
Corn   got 1 short  @ 703
Soybean   Gambling 2 short  @ 1365
Wheat    got  2  short  @  691
According to what China did and Technical Analysis showed, even the grain market kind of rose these two days, I believe that the bearish still can not be changed…
Thursday (Bid @ 20:00, Wednesday)
Fail to entered the market because of a wrong expectation of the prices.
Also, because of the decreasing market of wheat, a big account of profit lost.
According the average enter-market-prise (went a long trade in 3 @ 697 and another 1 @ 672.25 = 691), trying to get a short trade around 680 to limit the profit lost.
Friday (Bid @ 23:00, Thursday)
Unexpected sharp drop happened which disturb my original strategy. Trying to start over for another round. According to Technical Analysis, Both MACD and KDJ chart shows that Soybean and Wheat probably keep decreasing for another while. On contrary, since the corn price may already reach the RSI oversold, price of corn may go up in one or two days.
Corn    -2     @ 632
Soybean   2   @ 1289
Wheat    -1      @ 631
Conclusion for Week 2
The strategy I plan works only half of the week, the unexpected change shows that it is really hard to say I might … in another week. You have to watching at the market closely and preparing to make another move every single minute.