Before the Midterm week, I successfully offset all my contracts and want to have a fresh new start after that.

Then i begun this week’s trading game from reading every Wiki Expert’s suggestion. My exchange rate group have a conclusion that U.S. Dollar will decrease in the first 2-3 days of this week, then having a bound up if the EU summit meeting fails. Unfortunately, EU summit meeting on Oct. 26th cancelled the day before.

Seems like all the other experts group hold the same opinion that the commodity price will decreased. However, in the previous week, currency rate make a most impact of the price. That’s why i choose to follow Exchange Rate’s conclusion and made a decision by taking a long position For Tuesday(Oct. 25th), and planning to offset the day after.

For Wednesday(Oct. 26th), it seems my information was a little bit delay, commodity price is starting decrease on Tuesday, then i quickly offset my contracts but unfortunately i bid at a too high prices on Soybean and Corn (same mistake i was made at the first several weeks) and failed. There was a huge collapse on Wednesday. For wheat, I saw the J line strongly go through K last week, which means price may rising for a wile. Unfortunately, that predict was wrong.

For Tuesday(Oct. 27th), I was keep trying to offset my long position and take the lesson from yesterday, bid at a appropriate price, finally bid successfully and get out of the bleeding situation. End with holding 1 short contract on Corn.

I actually also read technical articles on Wednesday which saying there’s a buying signal for soybean up to 1320. Compare with my own analysis, I believe that rising trend may happened next week or even later. I started thinking about if all the “expert articles” really helps, which means we can’t just follow them but have to have our own thought and then take their’s suggestion.

For Friday(Oct 28th), I found myself didn’t find the inspiration of bidding this week, make a lot of mistake and keep making wrong decisions. End this week with holding one short contract on Corn because I believe corn’s decreasing in long trend is obvious and hope I can do better next week.

Conclusion

Long term prediction is really not work since the impact factor changes a lot and you just never know when it’s gonna happened. I probably changed my long term prediction to a short one, hope do not loss money on that anymore.

Also, the price might keep rally in the coming week… I should be cautions and see where the markets gonna heading to…

Margin Balance:

Preface

I have to say my trading strategy for this week is total a messy…

According to Jim we can still trade for Oct. 10th, the Thanksgiving long weekend since the U.S. market still open on that day. Then I made a “perfect” decision and submit it on google Doc. However, I didn’t realize there is no list for Oct. 10 and fill the prices and quantities in the Oct. 11th line instead. My original plan was not to change my position on Tuesday(Oct 11th), that’s why I didn’t realize it until I was trying to bid for Wednesday.

After I found out what I did, I already lost over 8,000 dollars and no way to fix it. And I also don’t know how to fix my strategy after having an unreasonable successful bidding at an unreasonable price.

Sometimes things happened unexpectedly, and we still have to face the reality. Thanks god it’s just a game this time. Anyhow, I decided try my best to earn the money back. Since I already set my mind to offset all my contracts at the end of this week and concentrate on my Mid-term next week, I think the least thing I can do it’s to survive this week peacefully.

Since there was no strategy which actually working on this week’s trading, I will briefly press some thoughts I originally plan.

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From the previous weeks’ trading, I found myself is too much depended on Technical Analysis. Then this week, I decided learn more information from other aspects and combine it with Technical and make decisions.

For Corn,

Even Corn has already gain the most in the previous five weeks, I believe the corn price will still rising on low global inventory causing by the natural disasters and higher Chinese demand.

Also, from the KDJ Technical Chart, which I already showed in last weeks blog, the rising trend is being obvious. BTW, the backward of Corn’s RSI showed up, which means there must be a solution of the oversold situation since such a long time (which started from middle of September).

Therefore, I made a decision to offset all those short contracts I held and changed my position into long.

For Soybean,

Several Classmates told me that soybean price will keep dropping in the next week, while I still believe the soybeans price will bound up since the demand is rebounding.

Also, the MACD still showed that soybean price will somehow bounced up in the next week. To play safety, I also decide offset part of my short position.

For Wheat,

Not that much news on wheat those days other than the flood effect from Thai and from the technical analysis, I also cannot have a clear predict. Since I lost huge money in wheat board in the past few weeks, I did lost my confidence in wheat board. I finally decided took my classmates’ opinion and offset all my wheat contract then take a short position, since the currency may keep influence the price.

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After I made the mistake on bidding sheet, I used one day to figure out where myself is and take a quick action to fix it.

1. Quickly change my Corn and Soybean situation from short to long to stop losing profit. Since I got more confidence in Corn’s uptrend, I took 2 long position in corn and 1 in soybean.

2. Offset all my wheat contract and wait for the next round start. Do not take any action with a messy head.

3. Made a decision that I have to offset all of my contract by the end of this week and try to start over with a whole new life from the week after Mid-term. I believe It will help me to learn more.

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Margin Calculate

Resources:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-05/corn-soybean-futures-rebound-in-chicago-on-speculation-demand-will-rise.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/china-may-not-rush-to-buy-corn-from-u-s-grains-council-says.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/food-prices-to-remain-high-price-swings-to-continue-fao-says.html

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/thai-flooding-buoys-rice-and-sugar-prices–3698.html

According to the previous technical analysis, we can give the forecast that the market of this week won’t change that much. Then I choose to set my positions up and not to move a lot in this week.

And the reality just showed my predict was right. The market fluctuate a little bit and the price didn’t change that much.

For Soybean, from MACD chart we can obviously see that the price must keep decrease in the previous week. However, it makes the short positions becoming more dangerous in the coming week.

Price has already reached 1161 by the end of today.  Even there’s several “experts” believe that soybean price may keep decrease until 1,000. I probably gonna watch it tightly and prepare to offset my short position when MACD reach the balance.

For Corn, It’s really strange that J line fluctuated around K line for such a long time in KDJ chart. Also, there’s no any indication about the huge price-dropping which happened on Thursday. It makes me have to re-design my strategy from the beginning. And the new MACD from Thursday shows that a new dropping turn around.

For Wheat, I am such a stubborn girl who believed that the price of wheat will somehow back again without any suspicion!!! Even most of my classmates warn me about the wheat price probably will never up to its original price, also Andrew said the impact of US dollar currency upward, which causing by Euro Crisis is much larger than the others’.

Anyhow, right now I believe wheat board will meet its another round of collapse. Since the MACD and KDJ chart shows a new decrease period, especially when I saw the purple J line strongly go through the white K line. I didn’t expect to this “double decrease” which rarely happened in my previous experience, and obviously I was wrong.

For now, I finally decide to offset all my long contracts in wheat on next Monday, if there’s no any other news about wheat distract my determination.

Margin Calculation: