Before the Midterm week, I successfully offset all my contracts and want to have a fresh new start after that.
Then i begun this week’s trading game from reading every Wiki Expert’s suggestion. My exchange rate group have a conclusion that U.S. Dollar will decrease in the first 2-3 days of this week, then having a bound up if the EU summit meeting fails. Unfortunately, EU summit meeting on Oct. 26th cancelled the day before.
Seems like all the other experts group hold the same opinion that the commodity price will decreased. However, in the previous week, currency rate make a most impact of the price. That’s why i choose to follow Exchange Rate’s conclusion and made a decision by taking a long position For Tuesday(Oct. 25th), and planning to offset the day after.
For Wednesday(Oct. 26th), it seems my information was a little bit delay, commodity price is starting decrease on Tuesday, then i quickly offset my contracts but unfortunately i bid at a too high prices on Soybean and Corn (same mistake i was made at the first several weeks) and failed. There was a huge collapse on Wednesday. For wheat, I saw the J line strongly go through K last week, which means price may rising for a wile. Unfortunately, that predict was wrong.
For Tuesday(Oct. 27th), I was keep trying to offset my long position and take the lesson from yesterday, bid at a appropriate price, finally bid successfully and get out of the bleeding situation. End with holding 1 short contract on Corn.
I actually also read technical articles on Wednesday which saying there’s a buying signal for soybean up to 1320. Compare with my own analysis, I believe that rising trend may happened next week or even later. I started thinking about if all the “expert articles” really helps, which means we can’t just follow them but have to have our own thought and then take their’s suggestion.
For Friday(Oct 28th), I found myself didn’t find the inspiration of bidding this week, make a lot of mistake and keep making wrong decisions. End this week with holding one short contract on Corn because I believe corn’s decreasing in long trend is obvious and hope I can do better next week.
Conclusion
Long term prediction is really not work since the impact factor changes a lot and you just never know when it’s gonna happened. I probably changed my long term prediction to a short one, hope do not loss money on that anymore.
Also, the price might keep rally in the coming week… I should be cautions and see where the markets gonna heading to…
Margin Balance:
Pretty nice strategy, that you really have your own thought not just lead by someone’s idea or what’s saying in news or article, you did really have your research and thought. But…all the indicators point that corn will rise, what’s reason to make you go short?
Hi Tasha, I make my this week’s strategy more depend on the currency exchange… That’s why i made a mistake… sigh… I always make the same mistake by only taking part of the impact factors…
Hey, Lixi, it seems i had the same situation with you, since I made almost all the predictions wrong this week even though I understood the futures market more deeply after mid-term. Anyway, I found your understanding for trading game improved a lot, which is more insightful and convincible, especially the exchanging rate I may probably ask you some questions about that next weeks… good luck for next week…
Thanks Deron,
Wish my strategy really improved as you said.
Hope those question are not that hard… haha
you are right, some expert blog can not predict accurate neither
Also , I found the long term prediction is dangerous!
For example , your corn.
BTW , the news shows the raising signs of corn recently, be careful and good luck!
You are right eva, I may not use the long term strategy anymore since I lost that much of money… I may just focus on the short term… I am not confidence on myself anymore!
Lixi,
I thought exactly opposite of you. According to technical indicators and also some happening like EU debt deal and depreciating US dollar, I considered the market for all commodities is bullish and I guess this strategy worked.
Good luck!
You were right Hossein, guess you must earn a lot on your strategy… Poor me… I’m gonna ask your opinion before my next move!
Hey Lixi,
I think the price in this week is a little bit hard to predict since the prices did not really drop that much or increase that much for each of the day except on Wednesday (and I meant they did not drop or increase that much compared to last few weeks)…and I found that the trends of corn price this week and last week look like “increase today and decrease by tomorrow”…and in these two weeks, if you focus on short term strategy and bid more aggressively, you could earn a little bit…and if you want to focus on the long term, you might lose a little bit by taking long position on corn, but according to the index of technical analysis, it is in a bullish mode, so you might be able to earn in the future if you take long position on corn…just a little bit comment about what I observed this week:)