30842.5 – This is what I get after all these 10 week’s trading game. Not that bad, hmm? I like this Mediocre number, just like myself. But trust me, it is not the only thing we get from all these 70 days. How we search for information? How could those news affect world market? How to organized a blog article? How to make your Tweets attractive? The way we work with each other. The friendship between you and me… Thanks to Jim, to provide this opportunity to improve ourselves. We all know that it was hard but still, I am so grateful and I am survived.

Trading Strategy for this week

I keep using the way I summarized my prediction for this week, which I found it is really helpful. I also made a suggestion to my dear classmates even I am not sure if it is work for you guys or not.

My balance finally back up to 25000 since last week, and I decided to bid cautiously, which means to keep my holding contracts controllable, to leave myself a very happy ending. Fortunately I made it. And forgive me, I offset all my Soybean contracts by the end of last week and didn’t even start it because I am so lack of experience to dealing with a board which is approaching the contract expire date.

For Nov. 15th

The November Crop Report which released by the Agriculture Department the day before showed a tight supply and strong demand would affect the Corn market at the same time, which will definitely push the market price up. The I took a 2 long position on Tuesday, expecting a uptrend would show up in the Corn’s price.

On the other hand, I encouraged myself to step into the Wheat Board in the very last week because I understand the balance shows in my sheet is not more important than the things I would learn from it. Forget those over self-respect, I don’t care how much I am going to loss. 1 little short contract I took because of the news about U.S. wheat supply boost.

For Nov. 16th

I am not surprised to make myself as a failure in Wheat Board anymore. Maybe next time I should just took the opposite action other than what I predict. (Haha, just joking)

It was a big jump yesterday in Corn Market then I believe the market power it going to fix it the day after, that’s why I took 2 offset position also another short one. And it worked.

For Wheat, The impact causing by the supply change didn’t show up the day before, which I believe I should take another short position and waiting for it falls.

For Nov. 17th

From the MACD chart of Corn Board, we can easily observe a different trend is showing up compare with the beginning of the week. But there’s not that much news to support my prediction and also technical analysis didn’t work well these 3 weeks, i decided to hold my position before my next move.

I didn’t expect I can earn any money from Wheat board, that’s why when I found I am not losing money I feel so happy and cannot wait to get out of the market. But it was proved that if I can be patient, trust myself and waiting for another day, thing might be different, I may enjoy my first earning in wheat board. I also found the news about supply boost after I bid, which making myself understand I might make a wrong decision again.

For Nov. 18th

I earn a large amount of money from Corn even I didn’t expect the huge collapse on Thursday though. It is the last day of trading game, and I just want to offset all my contracts and make this happy ending. I also believe the market somehow should gonna fix itself up after that huge a collapse. However, I was wrong about that. Price keep dropping but however I already locked my money in my pocket.  (^_−)−☆

Marginal Balance：

Resources:

[1] http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/soybean_contract_specifications.html

[2] http://southeastfarmpress.com/markets/tight-stocks-strong-demand-continue-corn-market

[3] http://www.aginfo.net/index.cfm/event/report/id/Market-Line-20640

Things really getting better, at least my balance right now is more than the amount when we start. I learn from others last week to make a form and record each days prediction, which is really a good way to make your strategy clear.

For this week, after Monday’s expert’s meeting, we found the currency trend is being not that clear. There was different forecast from the demand and supply side and the technology analysis. Then I bravely guess that U.S. currency change may not influence the market as that much as before.

Also, on general, “Technical indicators do not work well these days as well because the fast and slow moving averages are near to each other and every movement in prices is probable in this situation.”, according to Hossein.

My situation from last week is 2 short contracts in Soybean and Wheat respectively.

For Nov. 7th

Since Corn price remained supported by strong demand from ethanol producers, I took 2 long position to start my corn board of this week.

After last Thursday’s huge increase of Soybean, which causing by the pressure of Argentine soy-processing’s strike, I believe that the price of soybean somehow will back down to its original price in the next week, which makes me keep holding my short contracts and waiting for the “bottom”.

Wheat board being not clear, Not that much information which makes me decided to stay where I was and see what’s going on Monday. Also, It’s also means Market won’t change that much (may keep decreasing) to me.

For Nov. 8th

The drought happened in the U.S. somehow will decrease the supply of global Corn Market, which will keep pushing the increase price of Corn.

Current low price is driving Aussie wheat exports to the record. It is also showed that wheat price may decline after four days increasing because of the winter-wheat crop condition in the U.S. improved, which reduced the risks of yield loss.

DID NOT CHANGE MY POSITION ON TUESDAY.

For Nov. 9th

I felt that I should never step into wheat board again! I was keeping loss money on wheat board during the whole trading game. Even I change my strategy and trying to put most of my energy in wheat area, my prediction just keep opposite with the actual moving…

I finally decide offset my wheat contracts after that huge lost the day before and will be really cautions on wheat board.

On the other side, Brazil Soybean supply hit its record, which will keep pushing the soybean price decrease.

For Nov. 10th

To play safety, I offset all my corn contract to protect the profit I already get. My plan is to waiting for the market trend being more clear and re-enter the Corn board next week.

For soybean, the impact of supply already causing a slump, and I believe this decreasing trend impact may keep for another day. Then I took another short position in Soybean.

For Nov. 11th

In the precious day, soybean price reach a really low level – 1158, which is even the lowest in the recent month. I believe there should be a bounce after reaching such a low level. Offset for now, prepare for the last fight in the next week.

Margin Balance:

Resources:

[1]  http://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grain-futures—weekly-outlook%253A-november-7-11-226494

[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/drought-damaged-u-s-corn-crop-pressuring-global-food-supply-commodities.html

[3] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/wheat-may-drop-for-first-time-in-four-days-on-u-s-crop-outlook.html

[4] http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-09/grains-soybeans-slump-on-supply-gains-european-economic-woes.html

It seems things getting better than last week, even the price of all those three commodities is still in the Adjusted Phase and keep fluctuating through the whole week. I changed my strategy from long-term prediction to a short-term one since I found my long-term prediction not work very well since the high variability of market.On the contrary, short term predict worked well and good for learning just as what I did at the first several weeks.

For Corn

From the data I got previous showed that corn price will increase. Also from this weeks’ news,  we know corn global supply becoming tighter since the costs doubled.Price gonna be further higher as the supply decrease and demand increase.

At the same time, the Technical Analysis becoming not that clear this week, from both MACD chart and KDJ chart, the trend cannot give that much suggestion.

I held a short contract at the beginning of this week since I made a wrong prediction in Corn board last week. After a realized the uptrend is being clear, I took a offset and another long position On Nov. 2nd and entered the market successfully. Even price has been a huge collapse on that day, it fixed up the two days followed.

The corn trend is being not easy to predict, to play safety, I decide to offset my current situation and see what will it going from next Monday.

For Soybean

Soybean trend for this week is quite easier to predict. Downtrend is obvious which we can see from the U.S. Expert demand decrease. Even at the beginning of this week, professional technical analysis experts keep saying that there is a buying signal of soybean, the increasing trend of US currency somehow must cover up other impact and pushing commodity price dropping.

After bidding 2 short on Tuesday, I offset one of them the day after to prevent the risk of loss. After I read the further information of Exchange rate trend, I believe soybean may decrease for a while and ending this week by holding 2 short contracts.

For Wheat 

Wheat is just not that simple and it’s always the hardest one for me to predict. I finally decide to be really cautions in Wheat Board. I tried to take a short position since the down trend of currency is obvious and did earn some profits at the beginning. Somehow, on November 3rd, it’s starting increase as well as the commodity news saying the long term upping trend. I am still holding 2 short contracts and again starting to wait for the turning point or the stop-bleeding point to get out of the market. LoL.

For the Next week

According the currency exchange trend, MACD chart and Greek Weekend Fears, the US dollar may keep increase in the next week and keep pushing commodity price down in general. By the scope may be not that huge since the adjust phase may also keep in the next week.

Picture resources: Layne Hermansen – InsideFutures.com

Margin Balance:

Resources:

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/archer-daniels-midland-profit-misses-estimates-on-tight-u-s-corn-supplies.html

[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/china-record-corn-crop-still-failing-to-meet-demand-for-feed-commodities.html

[3] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-28/soybeans-fall-as-improving-south-american-crops-may-cut-u-s-export-demand.html

[4] http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/4/167528043.html

[5] http://www.agrimoney.com/news/china-datapoint-signals-soybean-price-rises-ahead–3785.html

[6] http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-europe-greece-voxpop-idUSTRE7A36M420111104