It seems things getting better than last week, even the price of all those three commodities is still in the Adjusted Phase and keep fluctuating through the whole week. I changed my strategy from long-term prediction to a short-term one since I found my long-term prediction not work very well since the high variability of market.On the contrary, short term predict worked well and good for learning just as what I did at the first several weeks.

For Corn

From the data I got previous showed that corn price will increase. Also from this weeks’ news,  we know corn global supply becoming tighter since the costs doubled.Price gonna be further higher as the supply decrease and demand increase.

At the same time, the Technical Analysis becoming not that clear this week, from both MACD chart and KDJ chart, the trend cannot give that much suggestion.

I held a short contract at the beginning of this week since I made a wrong prediction in Corn board last week. After a realized the uptrend is being clear, I took a offset and another long position On Nov. 2nd and entered the market successfully. Even price has been a huge collapse on that day, it fixed up the two days followed.

The corn trend is being not easy to predict, to play safety, I decide to offset my current situation and see what will it going from next Monday.

For Soybean

Soybean trend for this week is quite easier to predict. Downtrend is obvious which we can see from the U.S. Expert demand decrease. Even at the beginning of this week, professional technical analysis experts keep saying that there is a buying signal of soybean, the increasing trend of US currency somehow must cover up other impact and pushing commodity price dropping.

After bidding 2 short on Tuesday, I offset one of them the day after to prevent the risk of loss. After I read the further information of Exchange rate trend, I believe soybean may decrease for a while and ending this week by holding 2 short contracts.

For Wheat 

Wheat is just not that simple and it’s always the hardest one for me to predict. I finally decide to be really cautions in Wheat Board. I tried to take a short position since the down trend of currency is obvious and did earn some profits at the beginning. Somehow, on November 3rd, it’s starting increase as well as the commodity news saying the long term upping trend. I am still holding 2 short contracts and again starting to wait for the turning point or the stop-bleeding point to get out of the market. LoL.

For the Next week

According the currency exchange trend, MACD chart and Greek Weekend Fears, the US dollar may keep increase in the next week and keep pushing commodity price down in general. By the scope may be not that huge since the adjust phase may also keep in the next week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Picture resources: Layne Hermansen – InsideFutures.com

Margin Balance:

 

Resources:

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/archer-daniels-midland-profit-misses-estimates-on-tight-u-s-corn-supplies.html

[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-03/china-record-corn-crop-still-failing-to-meet-demand-for-feed-commodities.html

[3] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-28/soybeans-fall-as-improving-south-american-crops-may-cut-u-s-export-demand.html

[4] http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/4/167528043.html

[5] http://www.agrimoney.com/news/china-datapoint-signals-soybean-price-rises-ahead–3785.html

[6] http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-europe-greece-voxpop-idUSTRE7A36M420111104