An Exploration of Vulnerability and Risk with Regards to Sea-Level Rise in Mitigated and Unmitigated Scenarios
Olga Kochkareva and Ben Tudor
Abstract
As global greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations continue to rise, so will the sea level around the world. Miami-Dade County is home to some particularly at-risk areas, namely Miami City and Miami Beach, whose low-lying topography and close proximity to the coast will inevitably contribute to high likelihood of flooding in the future, regardless of climate action taken today. However, the difference between RCP 2.6 (strong mitigation scenario) and RCP 8.5 (business as usual scenario) is enormous, and the preventative measures taken in the coming years could determine whether part of, or the entirety of, Miami Beach is submerged in 2100.
This analysis used different suitability models to determine which regions were the most vulnerable to sea level rise, alongside models that show areas where flooding is most likely to occur. The research findings indicate that how one defines vulnerability has a considerable impact on areas in Miami-Dade County that are vulnerable to sea level rise. When physical factors are weighted more highly, the communities along the coastline are the most vulnerable, but when socio-economic factors are taken into consideration, vulnerable areas become less evenly distributed and more clustered. As such, the research shows that it is important to consider adaptive capacities when performing analyses such as this.
In an RCP 8.5 scenario, almost all of Miami Beach and Miami- especially racialized communities such as Little Haiti- are extremely vulnerable to sea level rise. It is of utmost importance that strong mitigation practices are taken to prevent the social and financial costs that would accompany sea level rise of 0.95 meters or more.
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