The Westeros Wing

On October 2nd, the founder of the online black market ‘The Silk Road’ was arrested by the FBI, and the multimillion dollar website was shuttered. The Silk Road was a deep web marketplace for illicit goods and services such as guns and drugs. The FBI operation was heralded as the beginning of the end for the criminal free market online, as the media leaped to congratulate the FBI on their victory for law and order. A USA Today article suggested that the FBI used “high tech cyber sleuthing” to bring about the end of the Road, and that the government’s hackers had finally advanced beyond the skills of criminals.

They are wrong. There are two fundamental ways in which they are wrong. Firstly, the fall of The Silk Road will end online black markets about as well as the fall of Napster ended music piracy. In other words, it will only encourage similar sites to find a better way. Secondly, the idea that the FBI operated a high tech sting is completely inaccurate, and the implication that online law enforcement have caught up to criminals is even more so.

While Forbes estimated that The Silk Road was most popular and profitable of the deep web markets, it was not alone. Black Market Reloaded (BMR) and Sheep are two online black markets that closely resemble The Silk Road. The FBI’s shutdown of The Silk Road hasn’t prompted its vendors to close their lucrative businesses and move into the legal economy. They simply set up in a new market, even using their old usernames to attract their old customers. And aside from giving them new business, the FBI’s closure of The Silk Road has helped its competitors learn what not to do. According to a Bangkok security expert quoted in a BBC article:

“Each bust works as evolutionary pressure, selecting out the insecure sites and training the other ones what to do better, so there will be better and better services (for buyers and sellers) with each iteration of these marketplaces after each bust”

This perfectly describes the evolution of music piracy from Napster to Kazaa to Limewire to torrents. Each site improved upon its predecessors, resulting in more and more customers downloading music. As the market grew, participants gained a sense of immunity. If everyone was doing it, who would the police arrest?

More importantly, how would the police arrest? The relatively anonymous nature of online interaction makes it ideal for criminal activity, particularly when the police are one step behind.  Despite suggestions that The Silk Road takedown represents the catching up of law enforcement, the facts behind the sites fall make it clear that this is not the case. There was very little high tech sleuthing in The Silk Road’s fall, rather, The FBI succeeded through lucky breaks, informants, and some old-fashioned policing.

Rather than being the technological aces reported, the FBI required an informant facing drug charges to help them navigate The Silk Road. Even with her aid, it took them an extensive time to follow a complex web connected to The Silk Road’s founder. A drug sniffing dog at the postal office lead them to a big seller who led them to a big informant, who after some persuasion, led them to Ross Ulbricht, the mastermind behind The Silk Road. Contrary to early reports (that the FBI refused to confirm or deny), the process was not a feat of technological skill.

It is surprising that this account was believable at all. The FBI cannot attempt to match the hacking expertise of the criminal web users, many of whom have been active online since childhood, and who spend the majority of their time plugged in. Many (like Ulbricht) harbour a deep mistrust of the federal government, and a strong belief in online freedom. While some may become informants under pressure, they are not likely to sell their skills to the government, particularly considering the lucrative business of the online underground.

While some have argued that The Silk Road’s removal is the first brick in dismantling online criminal networks, there is little evidence to support this view. The Silk Road has competitors who have grown from their defeat, and the success of the FBI on this case not indicative of their overall internet savvy. Without a revolutionary new strategy, online black markets, like their real life counterparts, might be here to stay.