May 11 2009
Mineral Scarcity
The following is an article on mineral scarcity, noted in the ecominerals Yahoo group (http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/ecominerals/). I’m entertained whenever I hear about somebody predicting that we will run out of iron (~%5 of the Earth’s crust). That said, the paper touches on the fascinating discussion of how we and the world will cope with another 40+ years of growing population and (hopefully) raising prosperity, combined with water and energy constraints, lower mineral grades, climate, etc. For background info, this falls within the realm of the Club of Rome’s 1972’s “The Limits to Growth” work.
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5239
Abstract
If we keep following the ruling paradigm of sustained global economic growth, we will soon run out of cheap and plentiful metal minerals of most types. Their extraction rates will no longer follow demand. The looming metal minerals crisis is being caused primarily by the unfolding energy crisis. Conventional mitigation strategies including recycling and substitution are necessary but insufficient without a different way of managing our world’s resources. The stakes are too high to gamble on timely and adequate future technological breakthroughs to solve our problems. The precautionary principle urges us to take immediate action to prevent or at least postpone future shortages. As soon as possible we should impose a co-ordinated policy of managed austerity, not only to address metal minerals shortages but other interrelated resource constraints (energy, water, food) as well. The framework of managed austerity enables a transition towards application (wherever possible) of the ‘elements of hope’: the most abundant metal (and non-metal) elements. In this way we can save the many critical metal elements for essential applications where complete substitution with the elements of hope is not viable. We call for a transition from growth in tangible possessions and instant, short-lived luxuries towards growth in consciousness, meaning and sense of purpose, connection with nature and reality and good stewardship for the sake of next generations.