The debate over the necessity of the Site C dam in northeastern British Columbia is primarily fueled over uncertainty in future demand for electricity in the province. Opponents of the dam claim estimates of future energy demand do not present conditions to justify the additional electricity that the project will provide; however, these conservative estimates often undervalue the growing market for electric vehicles in British Columbia.
A deeper look into the uncertain future electricity market seems to be undervaluing or even failing to acknowledge the rise in electric vehicle (plug-in electric vehicles; PEVs) use and subsequent future demand for electricity from the provincial electric grid. Based on projections from the International Energy Agency (2017) between 2012 and 2016, the market share of PEVs in Canada rose six-fold to 0.59% of total market share. This percentage may appear small, however assuming linear demand over the next twenty years (2037) the market share is projected to rise to 4.5% and a more likely trend will be exponential growth in the near and medium term, pending infrastructure changes and polices aimed at increasing this share. Because of geographic and climactic factors, many of the provinces in Canada have environments less conducive to PEV use than others. Due to favourable climactic conditions, British Columbia is expected to receive a large proportion of this national growth in market share over this timeframe, indicating a much higher provincial rise in market share than that projected for the national level.
By in large, BC Hydro – the provincial supplier and regulator of electricity, bases its estimate of future growth in demand for electricity in British Columbia on an anticipated population growth of more than 1 million people by 2037, as well as projected economic expansion of the Lower Mainland around Vancouver. While they mention a potential rise in PEVs, it does not seem to be a significant factor in their estimates; estimates which even without the addition of demand from PEVs, seem to suggest a deficit in future supply of electricity.
The United Kingdom has proposed a plan to ban the sale of new fossil-fuel vehicles by 2040, a policy that will have enormous ramifications to the countries energy grid over the medium and long term. If Canada were to propose a similar policy, say for vehicles in metro areas, this would be a huge policy push toward increased demand for electricity from the provincial grid of British Columbia. If the Province wants to keep its green agenda, there is surely a considerable market demand – and hence a justification – for the 5,100 GWh of annual electricity output that the Site C dam is projected to produce.
Additional Reading:
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf
http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/funding/current-funding-programs/eii/16412
https://www.bchydro.com/news/conservation/2017/long-term-energy-capacity-needs.html
Does B.C. really need the Site C dam?
