The New Tiananmen?
Today (October 1st) is Hong Kong’s national day, and is the largest day so far of the ‘umbrella revolution’ protesting for the democratic rights of the Hong Kong people to be recognised by the Beijing government. Over the last two weeks these protests have swelled in size and have gained the attention of international media, leading some to ask ‘is this the next Tiananmen Square?’ and ‘what should the international community do?’. I believe that these protests do have the ability to turn into the next Tiananmen Square and invite a communist crackdown on Hong Kong, but also that these protests have great potential to force the Beijing government to honor their promises of true democracy to Hong Kong, especially in the public limelight of globalised media. So far the US has been very cautious in their response to the protests, looking to strike a balance between supporting the democratic aims of the protestors and not challenging the Chinese government by appearing to incite or encourage further revolt. This position is understandable and reasonable, but I believe if the Chinese government does employ violence to subdue these protests in a repeat of Tiananmen Square then the USA and the wider international community are obligated to take stronger action to support the protestors.
An ariel view showing protestors filling the streets of Hong Kong (2)
What’s happening and why?
When Hong Kong was ceded from the British Empire to Chinese power, a promise was made that Hong Kong would get to democratically elect their own executive in 2017. Here emerged the ‘one country, two systems’ policy that we see in place today – Hong Kong is a part of China, but it is governed separately and enjoys far fewer restrictions of personal liberties than does the mainland. However there have been fears growing for some time now that the promised democratic future of Hong Kong may be in jeopardy – the Beijing government released a statement in July this year that they retain ‘comprehensive juristiction’ over Hong Kong, and that Hong Kong only has such autonomy and capacity because the Beijing government allows it to (1). These fears became justified when in August the Beijing govt appeared to backtrack on its promise of the free 2017 election in Hong Kong, saying that the executive would still be democratically elected, but out of a pool of only three candidates who would be put forward by the Beijing government. This implies that all the candidates that Hong Kong could chose to elect would be closely allied with the Beijing government and very pro-communism. It appeared to the people of Hong Kong that the promises of democracy were being broken, and Hong Kong would in the coming years be adopted into the communist system of the mainland.
These protests are being compared to those that took place in Tiananmen Square in 1989, which were also student-led pro-democracy protests. Those protests were crushed by the Chinese government, who met the protestors with the implementation of martial law and brute force. There are fears that the recent protests could invite a response similar to that of Tiananmen Square and lead to a communist crackdown on Hong Kong, which I believe is certainly possible. You would think the extensive media coverage of the protests would deter such a response, however the Tiananmen Square protests also enjoyed the media limelight and the Chinese government had no qualms about using force to shut those down with the world watching. Certainly the response from the Chinese government to these protests has been strong, indeed it is named the umbrella revolution after the umbrellas carried by protestors to protect themselves from the teargas sprayed by police. The actions taken by the Chinese government at Tiananmen Square were met by sanctions and a general condemnation of the violent suppression of democracy from countries like the USA, but so far there is no evidence of such international reaction in the recent crisis. China may be the single state in the world (along with perhaps North Korea) which is autonomous and strong enough to deter such an international response.
The images below compare the 1981 protests in Tiananmen Square (3) to today’s protests in Hong Hong (4)
So what should the international community do? So far America’s response to the protests has been cautious, some would say weak. The White House’s address stresses for the Chinese police to ‘excersise restraint’ and for the protestors to take only peaceful action – it seems the US government does not want to see the situation escalate. Though the US claims to ‘support the aspirations of the Hong Kong people’, they neglect to provide the protestors any support or challenge the Beijing government in anyway (5). China is probably the only state in the world which is strong enough militarily and economically to go back on promises of democracy in this way and not invite an immediate reaction from the USA. This places America in a tricky position – should they stand up for the most fundamental values that their country is founded upon (democracy and liberty) and actively support the protestors, risking retaliation from China? Or should the US stay quiet, and does such action implicitly support the Beijing government?
I believe that these protests are necessary to defend democracy in Hong Kong, and that they potentially have the power to spread to mainland China and challenge the established communist regime. So far the students and other ordinary Hong Kong citizens participating in the protests are doing an excellent job of peacefully standing up to their government and defending their democratic rights without external help. At this point I believe the US is correct to take a cautious stance, because China is an exceedingly important trade partner for them and also represents a great threat if the conflict ever came to be military. However, if these protests do turn into the next Tiananmen Square (that is, if the Beijing government turns to violence to subdue the peaceful protestors), the US and other countries are morally obligated to step in at least with economic sanctions, as humanitarian action.
It will be interesting to see how these protests develop in the coming weeks; whether the protests succeed in regaining democratic ground for Hong Kong from the Beijing government, or if they are subdued peacefully by the Chinese government and do not attract any action from the international community, or if they do indeed turn violent and necessitate the imposition of sanctions and perhaps further action from the USA and the wider international community. If the latter occurs this event has the potential to expand to enormous proportions, perhaps encouraging the spread of democratic revolt to the Chinese mainland, or possibly even sparking a conflict between the USA and China as the US inevitably steps in to defend the democratic rights of the people of Hong Kong. At the moment the protests could go in any direction.
1 Summers, T. (2014). White Paper Does Not Mark Major Shift on Hong Kong. Chatham House. Retrieved from http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/15140#
2 Getty Images,. (2014). Protestors fill the streets in Hong Kong. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/01/world/asia/hong-kong-protest-photos.html?_r=0
3 Tunley, P,. (2014). Tiananmen Square Protests. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/03/tiananmen-square-protests-crackdown-25-years-on
4 Yu, V. (2014). Images of the Umbrella Revolution. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/01/world/asia/hong-kong-protest-photos.html?_r=0
5 Josh Earnest, White House Address, Washington, 29/9/14, accessed at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjPJvDBjaEU on 3/10/14