The goal this week was to start the total overhaul, get out of short contacts and into long territory. I thought the market had bottomed out and that there would be nothing but gains from here on out. Ha ha if only it was that easy. Then I read a convincing report from Bloomberg
there was a prediction that Corn would open 6 to 8 cents lower…. (short…) the artcle further forcasts lower prices in all 3 commodities, wheat corn and soybeans. So this put my overhaul on hold. I will attempt to with Wheat and Corn hold my short position and see if I can make some gains for the week. Mondays prices 647 I figured 6-8 points down I placed a big of 640…. Tuesday surprise, up to 654. Loss!
On a side note the article has some specific times to watch, it is interesting to align these times to the daily trade prices.
11:00 U.S Export Inspections. – the reaction to price was decrease in 4 points from 10:30 to 11:00 – the USDA released 3 public reports on commodity exports.
- daily press releases, lists sales or cancellations of large scales
- weekly report of outstanding export sales during the current and next marketing year and level of export ship ent during the current year
- weekly report of export inspections, which are the quantities loaded on carriers for export.[1]
Must have been a negative report to cause the drop in prices. This is just interesting to see what sort of effect certain reports have on prices.
The prices for the rest of the week bounced back and forward for corn and wheat. Soybeans instead had a minor drop on Monday and a steady recovery of its drop all week. I placed a 1180 bid November 1st figuring that there would be a continuation in the downward trend but instead I saw a steady climb up for the rest of the week. (should be confident in moving long for next week)
I find it really difficult to use the technical indicators when the chart is so tight and there is not a lot of movement like we observed in September. October itself had remained pretty stagnant. I looked at what happened in the last 5 years for November to predict some trends for 2011.
2010 – Rising
2009 – Falling
2008 – Falling
2007 – Rising
2006 – Rising
great – nothing really consistent to move off of.
My prices this week were pretty close to the actual trading price it just was unfortunately in the wrong direct for contracts.
I am thinking this lackluster 2 past weeks of trading will result in some big moves next week. I am poised to move long. Moving 5 contracts in both wheat and soy and taking my current netted out position in Soybeans also into long territory .
Overall for the week, the NASDAQ, S&P and DOW Jones are all down this is also the case with Currency (Euro-USD). It will be interesting to see how the numbers look at todays close.
[1] Reaction of wheat, corn and soybean futures prices to USDA “export inspections” reports – Phil L Colling, Scott H Irwin, and Carl R Zulauf.
Nicole, nice to check different stock markets trend.
Actually, opposite to what you found, I found some analysis saying there would be potential price spike for corn and soybean due to large demand of corn and low stockpile of corn and soybean.
I know the US dollar really matters, so many of us are looking close to the currency. I think we should look at the employment data of US tmr.
haha i just realize ur blog is niconomics hahah sooo coooool!!!
mine would be faconomics?
I heard DOW Jones have something to do with commodity price but i dont know how they connect to each other…..
maybe we can talk about it when we are doing food M&E haha