Currency Guru – Forex is the Golden Ticket.

This week I have moved away at my weak attempts to successfully day trade, instead I am working on a weekly strategy. At the start of the week I decided that I would make an overall move for the week, Short for all 3

 

Look at the Average Daily Trading as a Percentage of overall total.

 

This week closes.       Corn                            Soybean                     Wheat

Mon                            645                             1,235                          660.6

Tuesday                     640.6                          1,239.4                       626.6

Wed                            638.2                          1,257                          618

Thursday                   640                             1,270                          622.6

 

 

 

Exchange rates          USD/EURO                 USD/CDN

Monday                      .7474                          1.0392

Tuesday                     .7385                          1.0301

Wednesday                .7336                          1.0292

Thursday                   .7291                          1.0222

Friday                         .7265                          1.0202

GOLD

Monday                      1,672

Tuesday                     1,662

Wednesday                1,682

Thursday                   1,667

Friday                         1,681

 

 

I waited to see what the values were on Monday, then I looked at the Close for Tuesday. Half a percent down, half a percent up; wheat had a significant -6% decrease, this looked promising for a short contract for the rest of the week.

The Grain Commodities Overall for the week: down -1% for Corn, a minor +3% increase in Soybeans and a -5% decrease in Wheat.

I took an over aggressive -8% move on Tuesday for wheat, (closed 8% higher then my bid), this bid was far out. Wheat moved -6% from Monday to Tuesday so my bid of -5% was a pretty good, except the market had really slow decreases for the rest of the weak -2% with the 1% increase to finish the week.  Corn had very minor movements all around -1%, -1%+1%

Overall my bids were all to far off and with the market staying pretty stagnant this week my dramatic bids only added to my losses.

I think that all things set aside there is 1 key indicator for the way these Commodity Markets move, and it is Currency Most Importantly Exchange Rates.  I think speculators will always respond to supply/demand weather crop reports. But I think ultimately trade follows the USD. So now I am starting to focus in on the USD/Euro and UDS/CDN exchange rates. This Week they were remarkably comparable.  I am also interested in Gold and its trading patterns.  I just wonder, if for every positive report on the Internet you can find there is an equal negative report.  As for the overall review on the week,  I read that a Buying Signal occurred for Wheat, (so I wonder if there is one coming for Corn as well) as for Soybeans, I think I may now move into positive long contracts. So again I will have to offset and take another loss.

Soybeans probably increased this week because of buying news coming out of China. As well the volume for soybeans was 3X higher then last week that must have helped rally the price up.

I am thinking that Corn and Wheat will trend now closely to the US dollar, there is some sort of consciousness that when the USD goes down I think these commodities will as well.

My focus on the Exchange rates:

1. USD
2. EURO

It will be interesting to see what happens to these rates in anticipation of the upcoming G-20 summit. Topics due include solutions to the debt crisis.

I Offset soybeans tonight, but I am still going with my short strategy for Corn and Wheat! Wish me luck – or lets just hope the USD plunges!