Commodity Futures,

With this being my first trade ever i thought starting with 1 commodity would be interesting and challenging enough.  I am looking at this market as a Pure Speculator, i am asking myself how far will this market go…. 6 months, 9 months, 12 months.  This course runs 4 months, these numbers once i make sense of them will just im sure i will reference for life from here on out.

my two options right away are “short the stock” this is thinking that the stock is going down, This is what I initially assume with a quick snapshot of a futures graph. this would suggest the economy is not growing, if the US is not growing the rest of the world is not growing right?  The other option is taking the “long run” this is to my understanding thinking that the commodity is going up. crops are increasing is quality, better fertilizers, (i think potash at the top of the market) overall in the long haul the stock would be better, and you would turn profit.

Bearish – economy is going down,  Bullish – economy is going up…. ok

ok so i don’t think that the agricultural  commodities are going to keep rising. i think this is already peak for Corn, Wheat and Soybeans. (mostly looking now at Corn) so i am moving towards starting my trades with some Short Run Contracts.

Reasons: The GDP is shrinking, and the US market is not returning the growth that they had projected the growth of 0.01% fall short and emphases the idea that the US is not growing, and in the market if the US is not growing, the rest of the world is not growing. There would be less stimilus being dedicated down to farmers, less money spent on invoations and technology, no purchasing of new equipment , no government grants to increase crop quality and yield. Just overall less action plans.  This would really just leave the farmers out on there own in the market, (hedging??)  so if i was a farmer …. i would be producing less, so the supply would go decrease (the economy is not growing)

This is just more Downside then Upside.

more analysis  – – – – lets see where Corn was trading last year at this time, ????  Woa 420 low last Jun 2010…. thats a gain of 80% over the past 14 months, Pure Speculations.

The Trade –

Short -Run Contract Price 680  (down 40 points)

I’m thinking the market is trending downward, and has come to its peak, Less money spent on Corn, on Feed, on Ethanol, and the fact that it is trading at its all time highest prices (peaking at 7.99) just below $8 a bushel.  Inflation cost or Prices and going up, less people are willing to consume, this is the downside.

Any idea what the daily trades maximums are for Corn? Wheat? or Soybeans?

Summary

These markets look choppy and volatile, i prefer not to go the long route, as there is risk to other problems could materialize, weather could change, demand could shift, there is just more downside.  inside i look for a 5% gain on the down, on the short 680 price at 40 points of todays close