For my geography 211 class, I had to write a term paper about the state of the earth. My topic was annual average surface temperature anomaly. To me, this topic meant discussing climate change as a whole, in terms of the temperature constituent. Using the DPSIR framework, I wrote about the key drivers and pressures that led to anomalously high average surface temperatures of the earth. I went into detail about how rising temperatures would influence other components that make up the state of the earth. I then discussed impacts that would result from a temperature increase, and finished off with responses.
In writing and researching for this paper, it dawned on me the absolute complexity of the issue of a warming planet, on both sides of the equation: drivers/pressures and impacts/responses. It seemed impossible at first that I would be able to type out 3000 words in a document but in the end I think I went over by about 18 words or so (oops). Because of the amount of information I felt I had to include, I did not get to go very in-depth at all in my explanations. This, I found, made for a rather boring paper. As well, since it was a research paper and I had a specific framework to adhere to, I was not really able to show much creativity in my writing.
Rather than post my whole paper, I will summarize parts of it below in simple terms:
Average Annual Surface Temperature Anomaly: Anomalies are used to show how things differ from their normal values. Average temperature anomalies of the earth indicate that the earth’s temperature as a whole is, on average, increasing. This represents a shift in the state of the earth. Projections indicate that the anomaly will only grow with time. There is substantial scientific evidence to support these claims, to the point where they cannot be disputed.
Drivers: As I have been learning in this class, we are currently in the anthropocene: a time where the dominant influences on the environment stem from humans. Therefore, the key drivers of global temperature increase are all because of human activity. Specific economic sectors that drive climate change are energy, industry, agriculture, and transportation. I did not get the change to discuss this in my paper, but it is important to consider how global capitalism as a whole is a driver of climate change. Capitalism is an extractivist system whereby humans have a dominance-based relationship with the earth; we see the earth in terms of resources to be brutally extracted rather than being a complex living system that needs to be protected.
Pressures: The dominant pressure created by drivers is emission of greenhouse gases, namely carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. These gases enter the atmosphere, trap outgoing radiation, and have a net warming effect on the planet. A secondary pressure is land use change, most notably in the form of deforestation. Plants are great at storing carbon, so when we cut them down we reduce the amount of storage for carbon and this results in more entering the atmosphere.
State: Surface Temperature Anomalies constitute a shift in the state of the earth, but this also affects the earth in many other ways. Glaciers are melting at increasing rates, sea level is rising and expected to continue rising, weather patterns are become more volatile/extreme, biodiversity in decreasing. The earth as we know it is beginning to look drastically different than what we’re used to.
Impacts: The major impact is reduced ecosystem services, which means that nearly every aspect of our lives will be affected. Humans absolutely rely on the services provided by ecosystems in order to survive. Water scarcity is expected to become a major future issue, as well as food scarcity. Agriculture, transport, industry, and energy sectors will all have to adjust to changing conditions and changing levels of demand. Human health will likely suffer, because of volatile meteorological conditions and increased diseases and pests, which will be felt most by vulnerable lower-income groups.
Responses: Though we are seeing global-scale agreements such as the 2015 Paris Agreement, there is little incentive for states to actually adhere to decisions and goals. Agreements are not legally-binding, and even if they were, who is the one unifying global leader that would reprimand a state for not participating? (There isn’t one). Responses also generally fail to address actual drivers of the problem. Sure, governments want to reduce emissions, but this would involve drastically redesigning the ways our societies function – and these types of redesigning plans are not being put into action.
Surface temperature anomaly is a complex state change that has many pieces to it, but to sum it up in one sentence: Humans are driving climate change, and humans will be adversely affected by climate change, so humans need to act to stop climate change.