The fourth week had seen my portfolio value crashed as I had maintained my bullish attitude towards wheat, corn, and coffee, which had seen their prices dropping this past week. Fortunately, my sugar contract is gaining profit so far as the price continues to climb.
Rain has improved the harvest prospect of coffee in Brazil’s top Arabica producing state. The market trend for coffee has been bearish over a week, and it seems the trend will continue.
image is taken from barchart.com
The price of wheat had been dropping last week due to the rain forecasted in the producing area. But the market sentiment is expected to be bullish as concern over dryness emerges again in southern Russia and in Europe. Low temperature and dryness has been threatening the sowing of the winter wheat and also the emergence of planted wheat crop in Russia due to shortage of water supply. I will maintain my long position this week as price is speculated to trend upward as November comes.
The recent revival of US dollar has also moves the price of corn as US export sales has weakened. Also, according to USDA data, US export for corn for 2015/2016 is expected to be 35% lower than last year. Although the market trend for corn currently is spotted by Barchart to be bearish, I will maintain my long position as the strength of the trend is reported to be weak.
Sugar has been my saving grace this past week. Price is moving upward since last week. Barchart also observes the market trend for sugar is “buy” at the current time, and the strength of the trend is strong. Recently sugar production has faced a negative supply shock. Agrimoney reports that extra production of sugar cane in Brazil is used for ethanol production to meet biofuel demand. Moreover, El Nino is threatening production in Thailand.
For next week, I will probably try to do some day tradings to reap quick profits to increase my portfolio value.
Until then, happy trading!
O