Peru Election 2006

The archived version

Seats in Congress: The latest projections

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Once again, our thanks to Rici for the latest seat projections for congress:
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Note that there are two pages: the first page shows how close each party is to passing the bar (cifra repartidora) necessary to get a seat. Page two offers the actual seat numbers.
“The change is that UPP has been creeping ahead in Apurimac, and is now showing as winning both seats instead of splitting with Apra. I think I missed that possibility in my last notes. We still don’t know whether RN will make the threshold; the projection is still showing it with 4.02%, so I’m still including it.” — Rici
For Rici’s earlier (April 20) projections click here.


Rici offers the following detailed notes:
“Apurimac: Could go back to UPP 1, Apra 1.
Callao: Several variations are possible. Apra could lose its second seat to AF, or (less likely), Apra could keep two seats, but UPP could lose it’s seat to AF.
Lima: PP and RN are both within a few hundred votes of another seat, but UN is still gaining ground as the vote comes in, and it is not that far from a ninth seat. UPP would be the first to lose a seat in any of those scenarios.
Loreto: it’s looking steadily less likely, but RN could still win a seat (away from Apra).
Madre de Dios: (the only single-seat district) RN is ahead of UPP by a few hundred votes, but that could easily change; also, RN might not make the threshold.
Piura: AF could still win a seat here, probably from Apra but possibly from UPP.
In Moquegua, the count is finished, so the results (UPP 1, Apra 1) are finalized (they were never in much doubt.)”

Written by Michael Ha

April 25th, 2006 at 7:39 am

Posted in Political Parties

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