Seats in Congress: The latest projections
Once again, we are in debt to Rici for the latest seat count.
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According to Rici:
“1) Minor parties: Although neither RN nor PP have yet achieved the 4% threshold, I think both of them will make it. The bulk of the uncounted votes are from Lima, where both RN and PP are polling at more than 4%, which should be sufficient to give them the few thousand extra votes needed to make the threshold. Consequently, I am still leaving both of them in the calculation.
2) Lima: There are still almost 13,000 mesas which need to be adjudicated. It is hard to know where these mesas are, although it seems reasonable to assume that there is an over-representation both of the foreign vote and the cones (which are biased in opposite directions.) The last few allocations are still very close, but UN drifted downwards from the April 25 results; the party which is closest to taking a seat away from UPP is RN (which only needs to improve by a few hundred votes). On the other hand, there is very little distance between the last UPP seat and the last AF seat, so it could be that AF loses a seat instead of UPP. I’d say that the following are safe:
UN: 8 AF: 7 Apra: 7 UPP: 5 FC: 3 PP: 2
That leaves three seats, which could go to any three of five candidates, in order of probability: RN#1, AF#8, UPP#6, RN#2, PP#3. (That is, the top preferential vote winner for RN, the eighth for AF, etc.) I haven’t checked to see who those people actually are.
3) Other districts: Almost all of the remaining districts are either fully computed or have only a few mesas left to adjudicate, or have very clear results. However, there are still a couple of possible changes:
Callao: With more than 800 mesas left to adjudicate, AF is only a few hundred votes away from taking a seat away from either Apra or (less likely) UPP.
Cusco: Fully a quarter of the mesas in Cusco are still being adjudicated, and UPP has made a significant advance since the adjudication started. If that advance continues, they will end up with four congresistas instead of three, and Apra will be left with only one.
It is mathematically possible that Apra could recover one of the two Apurimac seats, but it seems highly unlikely to me. There are only 21 mesas left, and Apra is 1000 votes away from the seat. It would have to win about 40% of the votes in the remaining mesas, more than double the 17% share it is currently showing. The only way I can see Apra winning the 39 seats predicted in La República yesterday is if they manage to win the second Apurimac seat and Perú Posible doesn’t make the threshold (giving Apra an extra Lima seat). Neither of those seem at all likely.”