Lima Decided the Second Round Outcome
Rici has provided tables with the latest numbers. Download file
He writes:
“I changed the colour-coding so that the department is just coloured according to the majority winner, regardless of whether they got 50% or not, which makes it easier to compare the results to the 2001 second round (also included). There are lots of things that could be said about the comparative results, but the most interesting observation is how similar the two elections were, outside of Lima.”
He also provided the comparable results from 2001. Download file
“In 2001, Perú Posible won 16 departments plus Lima. In 2006, UPP won 15 departments. The ten departments in ‘the excluded south,’ as mapped by La República today, are on both of these lists. (Apurímac, Arequipa, Ayacucho, Cusco, Huancavelica, Junín, Madre de Díos, Moquegua, Puno, Tacna). So are Amazonas, Huánuco and Loreto. The margins of victory are comparable, although generally more dramatic in the 2006 election.
However, when you look at Lima, the picture changes completely.
Note also that the number of blank/null votes was much higher in 2001.”
Just to drive the point home, I think it is fair to say that the big contrast between 2001 and 2006 is the voting behaviour of Lima, especially the poor voters. The fact that APRA carried Lima–every single district of Lima–in 2006 decided the outcome of this election.