Rici has provided tables with the latest numbers. Download file
He writes:
“I changed the colour-coding so that the department is just coloured according to the majority winner, regardless of whether they got 50% or not, which makes it easier to compare the results to the 2001 second round (also included). There are lots of things that could be said about the comparative results, but the most interesting observation is how similar the two elections were, outside of Lima.”
He also provided the comparable results from 2001. Download file
“In 2001, Perú Posible won 16 departments plus Lima. In 2006, UPP won 15 departments. The ten departments in ‘the excluded south,’ as mapped by La República today, are on both of these lists. (Apurímac, Arequipa, Ayacucho, Cusco, Huancavelica, Junín, Madre de Díos, Moquegua, Puno, Tacna). So are Amazonas, Huánuco and Loreto. The margins of victory are comparable, although generally more dramatic in the 2006 election.
However, when you look at Lima, the picture changes completely.
Note also that the number of blank/null votes was much higher in 2001.”
Just to drive the point home, I think it is fair to say that the big contrast between 2001 and 2006 is the voting behaviour of Lima, especially the poor voters. The fact that APRA carried Lima–every single district of Lima–in 2006 decided the outcome of this election.
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One reply on “Lima Decided the Second Round Outcome”
Yes, I think that’s a fair comment. Lima decided the outcome of this election.
But in the South, it would seem, Toledo captured many of the votes which went to Humala in 2006. In fact, you could say that the South decided the election of 2001. In the following summary, S10 are the ten departments in the “excluded south”; the “rest of Perú” gave a narrow victory to Apra:
S10: Apra 857,562; PP 1,559,213
Rest: Apra 4,047,367; PP 3,989,343
Clearly these voters felt betrayed by Toledo in a way which his supporters (and tacit supporters) in Lima did not.
I don’t recall anyone talking about “borrowed votes” in 2001, but I think it is safe to say that the South took its votes back with interest.