{"id":1031,"date":"2006-04-26T09:08:51","date_gmt":"2006-04-26T17:08:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/2006\/04\/26\/updated-2-datum-poll-april-19-21-2006-garcia-leads-in-runoff\/"},"modified":"2006-04-26T09:08:51","modified_gmt":"2006-04-26T17:08:51","slug":"updated-2-datum-poll-april-19-21-2006-garcia-leads-in-runoff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/2006\/04\/26\/updated-2-datum-poll-april-19-21-2006-garcia-leads-in-runoff\/","title":{"rendered":"Updated 2 – DATUM Poll, April 19-21, 2006: Garcia leads in runoff"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"info060425_G_06.jpg\"
\nSource: La Republica<\/a>, April 25, 2006
\nDATUM Internacional Survey: Download file<\/a>
\nUpdate, April 26. <\/strong>
\nWe have added to this post an interview with Manuel Torrado, Datum’s Director. He warns that the race is still close and that the gap between Garcia and Humala is not great enough to presume that Garcia would win a second round victory. If we take the total votes (not valid votes), the 43 to 37 percent difference is (barely) within the margin of error. That is, if Garcia is really at 40 and Humala is also at 40 percent (which this poll cannot rule out), then we have a tie. What is more, 20 percent of the voters could still go either way. Torrado confirms that the race is largely between north and south, with Garcia currently leading in Lima.
\nPreliminary Comments
\nMaxwell A. Cameron, April 25, 2006<\/strong>
\nThe first poll conducted following the April 9 presidential election has been released. The survey firm DATUM interviewed 1,126 respondents. The findings are within a margin of error: + or – 3 percent 95 percent of the time, and the sample represents 79.9 percent of the electoral population. Interviews were conducted in urban and rural areas in: Lima, Callao, Cusco, \u00c1ncash, Loreto, Piura, Puno, Arequipa, Jun\u00edn, Ayacucho, La Libertad y Lambayeque.
\nThe DATUM poll shows Garcia in the lead with 43 percent of the vote and Humala trailing with 37 percent. 17 percent would cast blank or spoiled ballots, and 3 percent are undecided. In terms of valid votes (omitting the undecided or those casting spoiled or blank ballots), Garcia has 54 percent to 46 percent for Humala.
\nRegarding the 17 percent who say they will cast a blank or spoiled ballot, if the margin starts to look too close for comfort some may alter their intention and make a decision. My guess is that Garcia rather than Humala would benefit, but that is just a hunch based on the presumption that anti-Aprismo animates the spoiled ballots crowd, but anti-Humalismo may trump this in the end. If we look at the breakdown of the spoiled\/blank vote by income group, it decreases steadily as you move from A\/B (29 percent) to C (19 percent) to D (16 percent) and E (14 percent). There is more unhappiness about the choice between candidates among the AB voters than among the D or E voters.
\nAccording to the data presented by DATUM, it would appear that much of the vote for Flores has begun to migrate to Garcia. Consider the vote breakdown by gender. Whereas Humala would have received 30 percent of the female vote in a race against Flores, he gets 34 percent against Garcia. In other words, 4 percent of the female vote has moved from Flores to Humala. However, Garcia has 44 percent of the female vote, fully 10 points more than Humala.
\nIn terms of age distribution, the biggest gap between Humala and Garcia is those in the 26 to 35 year range. Whereas 35 percent of them support Humala, 45 percent of them support Garcia. Humala may be picking up some of Flores’ young voters.
\nGarcia now has 57 percent of the voters in the urban A\/B sectors, while Humala has 12 percent. Humala\u2019s 12 percent is up from the 9 percent he would have picked up in a race against Flores. Garcia is also well ahead of Humala in the C stratum: he has 52 percent to Humala\u2019s 25 percent. However, in the D and E groups (by far the most numerous), the two candidates are virtually tied at 40 or 41 percent in each.
\nWe have been arguing that this second round will be largely a fight between the north and the south, with Lima up for grabs. At this point, Garcia has 49 percent in Lima, to Humala\u2019s 32 percent. Humala is going to have to make a major push to win votes in Lima if he is to have a chance of winning the election.
\nIn the south and central regions, Humala dominates with over 54 and 53 percent respectively. Garcia has a 56 percent lead in the north. The west is leaning toward Humala with 38 percent to Garcia\u2019s 33 percent. In general, Humala does better in the rural areas.
\nThe DATUM poll suggests that levels of approval of both Humala and Garcia are low. For that matter, the level of approval of all three of the front-running candidates is low. My problem with this question is that I have no idea what it means. What does it mean to say \u201cI disapprove\u201d in answer to the question \u201cDo you approve of the public efforts [the Spanish phrase is \u201clabor publica\u201d] that are being carried out by\u2026?\u201d The problematic wording raises larger issues concerning polls.
\nThis poll does not predict who will win the next round of the election. It provides a snapshot of current voter preferences. Since it was conducted before the official first round results were announced it may reflect the fact that there are still many voters who have not really begun to process their new choice.
\nAlso, campaigns matter. Here I have to disagree with colleagues who say that neither polls nor debates influence the process. The impact of polls is probably over-stated, but polls matter to strategic voters. Debates can have a huge impact. In general, campaigns matter and this one has just begun.
\nIf Humala runs a great campaign and wins the runoff, that does not necessarily mean this poll was wrong. It may mean that the initial distribution of voter intentions changed in the course of the campaign. By the same token, the polls did not miss the fact that Garcia was holding steady through most of the first round and that Flores was in decline. The best polls showed the two candidates very close which, as it happened, was accurate. The polls did generally understate support for APRA. This is not necessarily because the polls are bad; it may be because there is a \u201chidden vote\u201d for APRA.
\nThe record of DATUM is not terrific, but nor is it terrible. On April 5, 2006, they placed Garcia and Flores in a tie with 24 percent, and gave Humala 26 percent. Obviously, they were off (by twice their 2 percent margin of error) with respect to Humala but they did place Humala as the front-runner and reported a tie between Garcia and Flores. APOYO was marginally better (giving Humala 27 percent). During the blackout period, CPI circulated a poll that had Flores in the lead.
\nIn short, polls have biases and some polls have more biases than others. Leaving aside the issue of whether people answer pollsters truthfully, there are potentially important sample biases that affect most polls in Peru. It is costly to reach into the countryside and measure the support of candidates like Humala who may be strongest in rural areas. The lesson? Polls should be treated with caution and interpreted carefully.<\/p>\n


\nHumala podr\u00eda revertir resultados de encuesta<\/a>
\nDirector de Datum, Manuel Torrado, aconseja a Garc\u00eda no confiarse porque a\u00fan nada est\u00e1 dicho.
\nLa Primera, 26 de abril del 2006<\/strong>
\nLa diferencia de seis puntos que le lleva el candidato aprista Alan Garc\u00eda al nacionalista Ollanta Humala es demasiado estrecha para darlo por ganador de la segunda vuelta electoral.
\nAyer, el director de la encuestadora Datum, Manuel Torrado, advirti\u00f3 que estando Garc\u00eda P\u00e9rez en 43% y Humala Tasso en 37% (votos emitidos) a\u00fan nada est\u00e1 dicho para la segunda ronda electoral, pues todav\u00eda hay \u201cmucho pan por rebanar\u201d.
\nPor eso, el analista aconsej\u00f3 al candidato aprista no fiarse demasiado de estos primeros resultados, pues Humala \u2013bajo determinadas circunstancias\u2013 podr\u00eda revertir los resultados de las encuestas.
\nM\u00e1s a\u00fan, anot\u00f3, si tenemos en cuenta que hay un 20% de electores que a\u00fan no ha decidido a qu\u00e9 candidato apoyar (votos emitidos).
\nApunt\u00f3 que \u201cla lucha\u201d en este segundo round electoral ser\u00e1 muy \u201cre\u00f1ida\u201d y \u201cdif\u00edcil\u201d debido a que ambos candidatos tienen niveles de aceptaci\u00f3n muy cercanos.
\nSe\u00f1al\u00f3 que el sondeo realizado por Datum muestra que, en este momento, Garc\u00eda P\u00e9rez ganar\u00eda la elecci\u00f3n en Lima y el norte del pa\u00eds, que son las zonas con mayor electorado, mientras que Humala triunfar\u00eda en la selva, el sur y el centro del pa\u00eds.
\nDetall\u00f3 que el candidato aprista cuenta con mayor respaldo de los sectores socioecon\u00f3micos A, B y C, en tanto que el candidato nacionalista en los estratos D y E. \u201cLos m\u00e1s pobres se van con Humala, y me imagino que en la zona rural \u2013que no la hemos medido individualmente\u2013 Humala debe estar primero\u201d, acot\u00f3.
\nSin embargo, resalt\u00f3 que el APRA cuenta con un importante respaldo del campesinado, por propuestas como Sierra Exportadora y el Banco Agropecuario.
\nAlan y la derecha
\n\u00c1lvaro Vargas Llosa asegura que Alan Garc\u00eda sabe bien que \u201csi se al\u00eda con UN, dejar\u00e1 el terreno libre a Humala para captar a la masa antisistema y antiglobalizaci\u00f3n\u201d.
\nDatum: Alan gana en 2da vuelta<\/a>
\nLa Republica, 25 de abril de 2006<\/strong>
\nPRIMERA ENCUESTA
\n\u2022 Revela que el l\u00edder del Apra superar\u00eda a Ollanta por 8 puntos
\n\u2022 Tambi\u00e9n aumentar\u00edan los votos en blanco y viciados.
\nCon los votos contados. La \u00faltima encuesta de Datum realizada diez d\u00edas despu\u00e9s de las elecciones muestra que en segunda vuelta el candidato del Apra, Alan Garc\u00eda, ganar\u00eda al l\u00edder de Uni\u00f3n por el Per\u00fa Ollanta Humala, obteniendo el 54% de los votos v\u00e1lidos contra el 46% para el candidato nacionalista.
\nSin embargo, esta diferencia de apenas ocho puntos aumenta a doce, a favor de la l\u00edder de Unidad Nacional Lourdes Flores, si ella hubiera pasado a la segunda vuelta.
\nEn cuanto al total de los votos emitidos, la encuesta revela que el 17% adelanta que votar\u00e1 en blanco o viciado en un enfrentamiento entre Garc\u00eda y Humala, cifra que se eleva al 29% en los niveles A y B de la zona urbana. Y aunque el 74% de los encuestados se\u00f1ala que ya decidi\u00f3 su voto, el 84% piensa que es necesario que haya un debate presidencial entre los dos candidatos que pasen a la segunda vuelta. La muestra revela tambi\u00e9n que el 70% de los consultados considera que las elecciones del 9 de abril fueron limpias y transparentes.
\nSube aprobaci\u00f3n de Toledo a 21%
\nLa encuesta de Datum revela tambi\u00e9n que aument\u00f3 la aprobaci\u00f3n del presidente Alejandro Toledo, quien alcanza 21%, seis puntos porcentuales m\u00e1s que el mes pasado. Este apoyo de la poblaci\u00f3n se incrementa ligeramente en Lima, el norte y el oriente del pa\u00eds, mientras que en las regiones centro y sur la aprobaci\u00f3n del jefe del Estado sufre un declive.
\nPor otro lado, Lourdes Flores, Alan Garc\u00eda y Ollanta Humala presentan \u00edndices de aprobaci\u00f3n muy similares, contando con el respaldo de poco m\u00e1s de un tercio de los peruanos, que aprueban la gesti\u00f3n p\u00fablica que est\u00e1n realizando.
\n84% consider\u00f3 necesario el debate presidencial, en tanto que s\u00f3lo un 12% opin\u00f3 lo contrario. Alan derrotar\u00eda a Ollanta en la segunda vuelta <\/a>
\nLa Primera, 25 de abril del 2006<\/strong>
\nEl candidato presidencial del APRA, Alan Garc\u00eda, derrotar\u00eda en la segunda vuelta a su contendor de Uni\u00f3n por el Per\u00fa (UPP), Ollanta Humala, y se convertir\u00eda nuevamente en jefe del Estado, de acuerdo a los resultados de la primera encuesta de intenci\u00f3n de voto realizada por Datum con miras a la segunda vuelta electoral.
\nEn votos emitidos, Garc\u00eda ganar\u00eda con un 43% de sufragios, mientras que Humala obtendr\u00eda 37% de los mismos, mientras que los votos en blanco o viciados alcanzar\u00edan el 17% y los indecisos llegar\u00edan a 3%. Considerando s\u00f3lo votos v\u00e1lidos, el candidato aprista logra 54% y el nacionalista 46%.
\nRespecto a la decisi\u00f3n del voto, el 74% de los votantes ya decidi\u00f3 por qui\u00e9n va a votar, el 19% a\u00fan lo est\u00e1 pensado, el 6% lo har\u00e1 en blanco o viciado, y el 1% no contesta.
\nConsultados por Datum sobre la labor p\u00fablica de los principales candidatos, el 37% de los encuestados aprueba la de Flores Nano, mientras que el 56% la desaprueba; el 36% aprueba la de Humala y el 58% no; en tanto, el 34% aprueba a Garc\u00eda y el 61% la desaprueba.
\nAdem\u00e1s, en otro cuadro, el 84% de los entrevistados consider\u00f3 necesario un debate presidencial, mientras que el 12% no y el 4% no sabe o no opina.
\nSorpresiva tendencia
\nConsultado sobre el particular, el analista Agust\u00edn Figueroa consider\u00f3 que se trata de una sorpresa si se toma la secuencia de sondeos anteriores en la primera vuelta, donde Humala derrotaba a Garc\u00eda, pero dijo que no era sorprendente \u201cporque hist\u00f3ricamente la intenci\u00f3n de voto en segunda vuelta var\u00eda sustancialmente, pues la gente se enfrenta a otra realidad\u201d.
\nPese a que consider\u00f3 que la encuesta \u201ces muy preliminar y prematura\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3 que es evidente que un sector muy importante de los votantes de Unidad Nacional le dar\u00e1 su respaldo a Garc\u00eda.
\n\u201cEstos puntos que gana deben venir de quienes votaron por Lourdes Flores, Humberto Lay, Valent\u00edn Paniagua y el fujimorismo. Los votos de la izquierda no cuentan porque ya se los hab\u00edan llevado Humala y el APRA\u201d, indic\u00f3.
\nSin embargo, no descarta que las cifras puedan revertirse porque reci\u00e9n comienza la campa\u00f1a. \u201cYa hay una tendencia en el electorado, no s\u00e9 si pueda variar, pero ya es clara; sorprende que Humala s\u00f3lo llegara al 30% en primera vuelta y se vio que no era tanta su fuerza, al punto que pensaban ganar en primera vuelta o conseguir m\u00e1s del 40% de los votos\u201d, argument\u00f3.
\nRafael Rey reconoce la derrota de UN
\nEl congresista de UN Rafael Rey reconoci\u00f3 que \u201cla suerte est\u00e1 echada\u201d para Lourdes Flores en su af\u00e1n de pasar a la segunda vuelta.
\n\u201cYo, personalmente, reconozco la derrota. La suerte ya est\u00e1 echada para Lourdes Flores. Ojal\u00e1 que el resultado final diga lo contrario, pero en mi opini\u00f3n ya no debemos estar dando una impresi\u00f3n de no saber perder\u201d, manifest\u00f3.
\nPor su parte, Arturo Woodman recalc\u00f3 que las declaraciones de Rey Rey las hace \u201ca t\u00edtulo personal\u201d, por lo que continuar\u00e1 esperando el conteo final de la ONPE.
\n\u201cSimplemente es una posici\u00f3n que \u00e9l toma en base a los resultados que tiene hasta el d\u00eda de hoy. La posici\u00f3n del equipo de Lourdes (Flores) es esperar hasta el \u00faltimo momento\u201d, expres\u00f3 Woodman.
\nPor su parte, Xavier Barr\u00f3n, personero legal de Unidad Nacional, recomend\u00f3 a Rafael Rey que \u201cse tome un Xanax y se tranquilice, o se arme de paciencia\u201d, pues no comprende por qu\u00e9 est\u00e1 tan desesperado en reconocer la derrota de Lourdes Flores. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: La Republica, April 25, 2006 DATUM Internacional Survey: Download file Update, April 26. We have added to this post an interview with Manuel Torrado, Datum’s Director. He warns that the race is still close and that the gap between Garcia and Humala is not great enough to presume that Garcia would win a second […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1305,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7949],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-polls-results"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1305"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}