{"id":598,"date":"2006-03-10T14:50:31","date_gmt":"2006-03-10T22:50:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/2006\/03\/10\/augusto-alvarez-rodrich-on-the-last-month-of-the-campaign\/"},"modified":"2006-03-10T14:50:31","modified_gmt":"2006-03-10T22:50:31","slug":"augusto-alvarez-rodrich-on-the-last-month-of-the-campaign","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/2006\/03\/10\/augusto-alvarez-rodrich-on-the-last-month-of-the-campaign\/","title":{"rendered":"Augusto \u00c1lvarez Rodrich on the last month of the campaign"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Maxwell A. Cameron<br \/>\nMarch 10, 2006<\/strong><br \/>\nAugusto \u00c1lvarez Rodrich says that while anything is possible in the last 30 days of the campaign, it would be a big surprise if there was not a second round with Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala or Alan Garcia.  I agree with \u00c1lvarez Rodrich,  and would add that the race between the three is tightening.<br \/>\nThe top three candidates have 80 percent of the preferences of the decided voters.  The spread between them has been cut in half, however, from around 20 percent to about 10 percent, in the past month.  Until recently, Lourdes Flores Nano, the candidate for National Unity, has held a strong lead.  She has hovered around 30-35 percent throughout most of the campaign, occasionally slipped below 30 percent or rising as high as 37 or 38 percent.  In a recent poll, she stood at 33 percent.  Meanwhile Ollanta Humala, who emerged from nowhere to take first spot temporarily in mid-January, has settled at around 25 percent of the vote since then.  The most marked tendency in the last few weeks has been the rise of Alan Garcia, who now stands close to Humala with about 22 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><br \/>\n<em><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.peru21.com\/comunidad\/columnistas\/html\/DirectorIndex.html\">El baile de los que sobran<\/a><br \/>\nPor Augusto \u00c1lvarez Rodrich. Director.<br \/>\n10 de Marzo de 2006\t<\/strong><br \/>\nYa se sabe que, en el Per\u00fa, todo es posible en el \u00faltimo mes de campa\u00f1a electoral, pero la verdad es que ser\u00eda una gran sorpresa que en la segunda vuelta no participaran Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala o Alan Garc\u00eda.<br \/>\nPor varias razones, el resto de candidatos no pudo levantar vuelo en lo que va de la campa\u00f1a, y parece dif\u00edcil que lo pueda lograr durante los \u00faltimos treinta d\u00edas.<br \/>\nAl margen de la comprensible dificultad para alcanzar notoriedad entre m\u00e1s de dos decenas de candidatos, otro factor que perjudic\u00f3 a 21 de los 24 postulantes que estuvieron en la largada fue el s\u00fabito crecimiento electoral que alcanz\u00f3 Ollanta Humala en diciembre pasado, lo cual produjo una r\u00e1pida polarizaci\u00f3n del voto y su concentraci\u00f3n entre los que eran percibidos con posibilidades reales de instalarse en el sill\u00f3n presidencial.<br \/>\nTodav\u00eda queda un grueso sector de indecisos, pero parece que el elector estar\u00eda buscando no votar a perdedor, lo cual mella considerablemente la posibilidad de que indague por opciones afines a su forma de pensar aun cuando esta no se encontrara en el pelot\u00f3n delantero.<br \/>\nEntre los principales perjudicados por este fen\u00f3meno destacan Valent\u00edn Paniagua y Martha Ch\u00e1vez, quienes si bien no est\u00e1n dentro del club de menos del uno por ciento, se ubican a muchos cuerpos de distancia de los punteros.<br \/>\nA pesar del aprecio que la opini\u00f3n p\u00fablica le tiene, el ex presidente del gobierno de transici\u00f3n simplemente no pudo diferenciarse de Lourdes Flores, y esta acab\u00f3 comi\u00e9ndose casi todo su queso electoral. A su vez, la candidata fujimorista se hundi\u00f3 por la percepci\u00f3n justificada de que su l\u00edder tiene para rato en una chirona chilena.<br \/>\nMucho m\u00e1s atr\u00e1s viene un grupo amplio y variopinto de candidatos que incluye a pol\u00edticos como Susana Villar\u00e1n, Natale Amprimo, Alberto Borea, o Javier Diez Canseco, para solo citar a algunos de ellos, que si bien tienen escasas posibilidades en esta elecci\u00f3n, podr\u00edan tener un encargo relevante en alg\u00fan momento del pr\u00f3ximo lustro -al igual que Paniagua, ciertamente- o estar sembrando para la cosecha del 2011. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Maxwell A. Cameron March 10, 2006 Augusto \u00c1lvarez Rodrich says that while anything is possible in the last 30 days of the campaign, it would be a big surprise if there was not a second round with Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala or Alan Garcia. I agree with \u00c1lvarez Rodrich, and would add that the race [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1305,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7961,7951],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis-opinion","category-political-parties"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1305"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}