{"id":901,"date":"2006-04-11T18:40:07","date_gmt":"2006-04-12T02:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/2006\/04\/11\/800-p-m-onpe-presidential-results-at-86-64-valid-votes\/"},"modified":"2006-04-11T18:40:07","modified_gmt":"2006-04-12T02:40:07","slug":"800-p-m-onpe-presidential-results-at-86-64-valid-votes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/2006\/04\/11\/800-p-m-onpe-presidential-results-at-86-64-valid-votes\/","title":{"rendered":"8:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 86.64% – Valid Votes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ollanta Humala 30.88%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.57%
\nLourdes Flores 23.44%
\n\"image007.png\"
\nNOTE:<\/strong> ONPE’s website<\/a> is providing more up-to-date information
\nPeru Election: Race To The Finish Line<\/a>
\nVoto fuera (2)<\/a><\/p>\n


\n5:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 85.34% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.87%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.65%
\nLourdes Flores 23.52%
\n4:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.938% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.866%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.681%
\nLourdes Flores 23.591%
\n2:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.54% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.85%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.70%
\nLourdes Flores 23.60%
\n1:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.41% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.85%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.70%
\nLourdes Flores 23.59%
\n12:10 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.30% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.86%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.69%
\nLourdes Flores 23.60%
\n11:20 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.17% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.86%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.79%
\nLourdes Flores 23.61%
\n10:20 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 83.96% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.84%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.70%
\nLourdes Flores 23.63%
\n09:30 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 83.87% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.82%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.71%
\nLourdes Flores 23.64%
\n09:00 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 83.52% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.85%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.62%
\nLourdes Flores 23.70%
\nMartha Chavez 7.06%
\nValentin Paniagua 5.80%
\n07:00 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 83.42% – Valid Votes<\/strong>
\nOllanta Humala 30.84%
\nAlan Garc\u00eda 24.62%
\nLourdes Flores 23.71%
\n
\nLas impugnaciones pueden definir segunda vuelta y postergarla<\/a>
\nCorreo, 11 de abril del 2006<\/strong>
\nLos expertos en temas electorales Fernando Tuesta, de la Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, y Percy Medina, de Transparencia, afirmaron que ante el estrecho margen que separa a Alan Garc\u00eda (APRA) de Lourdes Flores (UN) los \u201cvotos impugnados\u201d podr\u00edan definir el pase a segunda vuelta y \u201cretrasar\u201d la fecha de \u00e9sta.
\nTuesta se\u00f1al\u00f3 que a\u00fan no se puede hablar de triunfos, pues un acta impugnada puede contener \u2013por ejemplo\u2013 150 votos, que, ante la proximidad que hay entre los competidores, pueden definir qui\u00e9n pasa a competir con Ollanta Humala.
\n\u201cEspero que los Jurados Electorales Especiales, que son los que resuelven impugnaciones, act\u00faen con celeridad. Estamos en una situaci\u00f3n l\u00edmite de incertidumbre que el pa\u00eds no merece. Y es posible que se deba esperar al 100% para definir la elecci\u00f3n\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3.
\nPor su parte, Medina coincidi\u00f3 con Tuesta en la importancia que adquieren las impugnaciones, y adem\u00e1s se\u00f1al\u00f3 que \u00e9stas pueden \u201cretrasar eventualmente\u201d la segunda vuelta, posiblemente hasta fines de mayo o las primeras semanas de junio.
\n\u201cLa segunda vuelta debe convocarse luego de la proclama total de votos de la elecci\u00f3n por el JNE\u201d, explic\u00f3.
\nDe otro lado, Medina explic\u00f3 que una elecci\u00f3n general, seg\u00fan nuestras leyes, puede ser anulada totalmente si es que la suma de votos blancos y viciados llega a los dos tercios del total. Sin embargo, precis\u00f3 que en esta justa electoral no se ha llegado a tal grado \u201cni por asomo\u201d. Los expertos en temas electorales Fernando Tuesta, de la Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, y Percy Medina, de Transparencia, afirmaron que ante el estrecho margen que separa a Alan Garc\u00eda (APRA) de Lourdes Flores (UN) los \u201cvotos impugnados\u201d podr\u00edan definir el pase a segunda vuelta y \u201cretrasar\u201d la fecha de \u00e9sta.
\nTuesta se\u00f1al\u00f3 que a\u00fan no se puede hablar de triunfos, pues un acta impugnada puede contener \u2013por ejemplo\u2013 150 votos, que, ante la proximidad que hay entre los competidores, pueden definir qui\u00e9n pasa a competir con Ollanta Humala.
\n\u201cEspero que los Jurados Electorales Especiales, que son los que resuelven impugnaciones, act\u00faen con celeridad. Estamos en una situaci\u00f3n l\u00edmite de incertidumbre que el pa\u00eds no merece. Y es posible que se deba esperar al 100% para definir la elecci\u00f3n\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3.
\nPor su parte, Medina coincidi\u00f3 con Tuesta en la importancia que adquieren las impugnaciones, y adem\u00e1s se\u00f1al\u00f3 que \u00e9stas pueden \u201cretrasar eventualmente\u201d la segunda vuelta, posiblemente hasta fines de mayo o las primeras semanas de junio.
\n\u201cLa segunda vuelta debe convocarse luego de la proclama total de votos de la elecci\u00f3n por el JNE\u201d, explic\u00f3.
\nDe otro lado, Medina explic\u00f3 que una elecci\u00f3n general, seg\u00fan nuestras leyes, puede ser anulada totalmente si es que la suma de votos blancos y viciados llega a los dos tercios del total. Sin embargo, precis\u00f3 que en esta justa electoral no se ha llegado a tal grado \u201cni por asomo\u201d. <\/em>
\nRici
\nFruit & Votes<\/a><\/strong>
\nFlores might still make it, but it seems unlikely. The preliminary results are slightly biased by the fact that the last ballots to be counted will be those cast outside of Peru. The exterior vote makes up 2.8% of Peru\u2019s voting population, and is heavily biased towards the right.
\nIt should be noted that rather more than 2.8% of Peruvians live outside of Peru. However, many of those are \u201cundocumented\u201d and are reluctant to register with the Peruvian embassy. (Some do, though, and there is no evidence I know of that the information is leaked. However, it\u2019s easy to understand the reluctance.) On the other hand, Peruvian law does not allow mail-in or proxy votes, so in order to vote you have to physically present yourself at a polling booth; this might be quite a distance. So the turnout is generally lower in the exterior than it is in Peru.
\nVoting is mandatory in Peru; you are fined if you don\u2019t vote. So the turnout is higher than it would otherwise be.
\nHaving said all that, my back-of-the-envelope computation indicates that Garc\u00eda will win by something like 30,000 votes (0.2%).
\nAnother point of information: the 2001 election was between an outsider, Alejandro Toledo, running on a platform of opposition to traditional politics. In fact, running in opposition to traditional politics is pretty well a tradition in Peru. In any event, the other two protagonists were the same, and the results were somewhat similar: Toledo received 36.5% of the vote, Garc\u00eda 25.8% and Flores 24.3%.
\nAt the time, Toledo was trying his best to look left wing, although I couldn\u2019t help noticing that his CV was not exactly consistent with that: he\u2019s an economist who has been a consultant for the World Bank, for example. He also played the \u201cpoor boy from Cabana\u201d card to the hilt. Of course, it\u2019s true: he did grow up in unimaginable poverty. Humala grew up in a middle-class family. Both of them live in very nice parts of Lima. But that\u2019s all beside the point.
\nSo, in the second round in 2001, Toledo edged Garc\u00eda out by 53% to 47%. However, he was starting with a rather larger base than Humala. My guess is that unless something particularly outrageous happens in the next few weeks, Garc\u00eda will edge Humala out by roughly the same 53-47 majority. If I were a professional political analyst I might be less shy about making a prediction about a Peruvian election.
\nPre-election polls showed Humala beating Garc\u00eda in a hypothetical second round, and Flores beating Humala; in both cases, the margins were slim. But that actually seems unlikely to me. It is very difficult, perhaps impossible, for the right to win a fair election in Per\u00fa.
\nOf course, Toledo managed it, but his popularity plunged so fast he must have had nosebleeds; his party, such as it is, has been completely devastated in this election. And that despite the fact that he managed to do exactly what he said he would do \u2014 reading between the lines \u2014 that is, implement a successful neoliberal program which kept Per\u00fa\u2019s macroeconomy steadily growing. The problem is that the macroeconomic success was actually counter-productive: if you\u2019re poor and you know some people are getting richer, you are much more inclined to notice that you are not yourself getting less poor.
\nFlores is just not in a position to tap into that resentment. Toledo could, and so could Fujimori, because both of them are visibly not part of the establishment (whether or not they are actually part of the establishment). So Flores (somewhat like Vargas Llosa in 1990) finds that the more she presents herself in public, the less support she has; her vote slipped steadily in the polls during the election campaign.
\nFlores does have one thing going for her: the gender gap. Polling shows an enormous gender gap between Flores and Humala, and I think that is what was driving the hypothetical second-round victory for her. However, by voting day the gap had diminished somewhat, and it probably wouldn\u2019t resist another six weeks of campaigning. For one thing, Humala now has a caucus. By my count, 14 of Humala\u2019s predicted 45 seats were won by women. That\u2019s 13 out of 39 seats outside of Lima. By contrast, UN seems to have elected four women, two from Lima and two outside.
\nAn even more interesting hypothetical question is: how well would Fujimori have done had he managed to get onto the ballot? His daughter Keiko will receive far and away the highest preferential vote in Lima (she has more than 80% of her party\u2019s vote). But I don\u2019t feel like going down that road\u2026
\nI haven\u2019t reverified my congressional calculation, but I did put names to the seats, and it seems like there will be 34 women elected, 11 in Lima (of 35) and 23 in the rest of the country (of 85). We\u2019ll see in a week or two how close I came.
\nSeed planted by Rici \u2014 11 April, 2006 @ 19:04 <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ollanta Humala 30.88% Alan Garc\u00eda 24.57% Lourdes Flores 23.44% NOTE: ONPE’s website is providing more up-to-date information Peru Election: Race To The Finish Line Voto fuera (2)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1305,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7949],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-polls-results"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/901","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1305"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=901"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/901\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=901"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=901"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/peru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=901"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}