Week 5: 2. The Road Ahead

As the US soybean harvest at 71 percent complete, there is no more important news about soybean released. I’ll just keep it until there is something new released. Next week, I’ll pay more attention on wheat.

For wheat, there is something important that we should pay attention to. US wheat futures rose on Thursday on better-than-expected export sales as well as some concerns about dry conditions hurting harvest prospects for recently seeded winter crops, traders said.

Besides, the US Agriculture Department said weekly export sales of wheat were 410,000 tonnes, topping forecasts for 250,000 to 375,000 tonnes. A week ago, wheat export sales were 279,900 tonnes.

Third, the U.S. wheat supply will dwindle as poultry and livestock producers continue to turn to wheat as an economical feed source. Increased demand for U.S. wheat in the current crop year is expected to more than offset the growing wheat supply. Wheat export, wheat for domestic food use, and wheat used for seed are expected to remain relatively flat from last year, but feed use will soar, according to USDA.

It is obvious that the price of wheat will go up next week. The strategy for next week is to go long on wheat. At the same time, I will keep an eye on soybean. As soon as the price of soybean go down, I’ll offset quickly.

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