Week 6: 2. The Road Ahead

This week, I’ll still focus on wheat. I believe that the price of wheat will still go up.

One reason is that the harvest of wheat is coming to an end. However, the most important reason is that Hurricane Sandy will attack the east coast of America. There will be more wheat needed and the transport of wheat will be inconvenient. Sandy is a very severe disaster that may cause severe floods. I’m afraid the CBOT may stop trading for days.

Another reason may raise the price up is that Storms have pelted the South American grains powerhouse since August, raising uncertainty about crops needed to bolster food stocks after dry weather slashed output in other major producers such as Russia, Australia and the United States. Argentina’s upcoming wheat harvest is expected to shrink 17 percent from last season to 11.5 million tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said last week, as farmers skirt export curbs by shifting to other crops. I’m afraid this week, the bad weather is the most important factor that can decrease the supply of wheat and increase the price.

Third reason is that Taiwan Flour Mills Association tendered to buy 104,000 tonnes of milling wheat from the United States for shipment in November and December. The future price of November and December will increase too because there may be less available by that time.

So, this week, I will still go long on wheat and I’m looking forward to get more reward this time.

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