The Crimean Crisis
The year 2014 did not start out well. As if the world is not already beset by dozens of regional conflicts across the globe, eastern Europe had to go through a sort state of affairs. What turned out to be a peaceful protest to oust a corrupt leader in Ukraine led to the culmination of events that resulted to the breaking up of sovereign Ukraine and the terribly unfortunate case of ‘being at the wrong place at the wrong time’ for a certain commercial airliner.
What has the world come to? I feel like we, the young generations (late teens into early adulthood), are thrust onto the world stage that is nearly falling apart. And, we are supposed to fix it when our time comes. What I fear the most is the fact that Russia and Western liberal democracies led by the U.S are picking where the Cold War left off. It is as if Russia and the U.S are reaching their tipping points once again. This could spell disaster. Ukraine, that is just the beginning. There is more to come. Eastern Europe will soon become a breeding ground for pro-Russian movements.
Naturally, when a corrupt government is in power, protest will ensue. The Ukrainian politician, Viktor Yanukovych is removed from power and ends up in Russian grounds. Hats off to the Ukrainians for upholding democratic principles during the Orange Revolution. Russia saw the protest as a defamation to the legitimacy of Yanukovych’s leadership. There was great political instability within Ukraine leading to the development of separatist and pro-Russian movements. Crimea was put immediately into the spotlight.
The annexation of Crimea into Russia sends red flags everywhere. This is something that hasn’t happen for a while now. Ukraine was torn almost in half. The reason I see this as very troubling is because Russia is very much aware of the economic, political and military might of the Western powers. But yet, it re-affirms and asserts its own dominance in their own way. Ukraine and the Crimea region were the first victim. Vladimir Putin saw an opportunity and took it. The U.S and its NATO allies are now faced with a Russian problem. Russia has been patient enough with the advancement of NATO closer to its borders. Will Russia retaliate if it got too close? Most definitely. Bear in mind that Russia has stockpiles of nuclear weapons. If someone went all up in your face, wouldn’t you retaliate and fight back? That’s why I think the U.S should let this one fly. Its pushing way past its limits. The Cold War is reaching high probabilities because Russia has about enough of the U.S’s “strategic” moves.
The reason I believe that this could be the return of the Cold War is because geopolitics play a huge role in today’s world. Crimea’s annexation into Russia would mean that Russia is quick in gaining ground in diminishing U.S’s military and political hegemony. U.S and NATO are well-equipped for sure but Russia on its own is a force to be reckon with. Some say that the Cold War has died down 20 years ago. But recent developments on eastern European geopolitics have revived the idea once again. And smacked right in the middle of it is Ukraine. The U.S can tolerate so much of Russian decision-making on foreign policies and I fear that the economic sanctions placed on Russia is agitating them to a point where it becomes necessary to retaliate. And, we all know that Vladimir Putin is more and well capable of retaliation. I feel like it’s just about Russian patriotism and U.S hegemonic tendencies.
It’s already end of September and regional conflicts such as the Islamic State is an even bigger threat. Which means that it is much easier for the U.S and Russia to set each other off. Everything is at a tipping point. The U.S sent airstrikes on Syria. Could the same thing happen in Ukraine? Perhaps. All I know it is not going to end well. As a realist, it is about bigger and powerful nations protecting their own and the smaller nations getting torn apart as a result. Military and diplomacy power goes a long way.
Either way, we shall see what happens at the end of this year. More conflicts to come? Unfortunately, yes. International relations is for in a world of hurt.