Poli 421-Politics and Gov't of the Modern Arab World

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110201-dispatch-muslim-brotherhoods-strategies-egypt-and-jordan

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/2011218490882163.html

It is not at all clear what will happen in the Egyptian revolution. It is not a surprise that this is happening. Hosni Mubarak has been president for more than a quarter of a century, ever since the assassination of Anwar Sadat. He is old and has been ill. No one expected him to live much longer, and his apparent plan, which was that he would be replaced by his son, Gamal, was not going to happen even though it was a possibility a year ago.
Read more: The Egypt Crisis in a Global Context: A Special Report | STRATFOR

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and al-Adly, the two main targets of ire for the demonstrators, seem to be betting that they can ride this crisis out and remain in power. So far, the military seems to be acquiescing to these decisions.

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This video will only be free publicly for a week.  It will be archived for members only thereafter.  Stratfor CEO George Friedman’s take on the protests in Egypt.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110128-agenda-george-friedman-egypt

[DISPATCH] VIDEO – Egyptian Unrest Continues

Middle East analyst Kamran Bokhari discusses the Mubarak government’s potential vulnerability as a result of the street protests, which may exacerbate the country’s leadership succession troubles.

Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.

Unrest in Egypt is in play, this is the third day of protests but the big day is tomorrow, Friday, and we need to see just what happens in terms of the critical mass developing, and the ability of the security forces to contain the unrest. Tomorrow will tell where things are going in a much more clear way.

Any Egyptian unrest needs to be placed into context. Everybody is looking at Tunisia as sort of the model, the template, and then gauging everybody else, every other country, and its unrest on that basis. Definitely Egypt has its vulnerabilities, but Egypt is very different from Tunisia, because Egypt has not been an authoritarian state along the lines of the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia.

What makes Egypt stand apart from every other case is that Egypt was already in a situation of transition because President Mubarak is ill and at an advanced age. There is already a succession process in play, so with these protests that are taking place and the big one that’s supposed to come tomorrow, they may exacerbate that pre-existing condition and really force the ruling National Democratic Party into a corner because it’s already struggling with the military in terms of how to proceed with the transition and now it’s seeing pressure from the streets and the fear is that in an extreme case scenario the military could actually align with the public to boot out the NDP and create a new system.

If the winds of change are blowing in Cairo, they are much, much more significant than any similar situation, say in Damascus, or Amman, or Riyadh, or some other Arab capital. Egypt is the largest Arab state in terms of population, and it is the center of the Arab world, the leader of the Arab world. Changes that take place in Cairo reverberate throughout the region and therefore Egypt is very important from the U.S. standpoint, because for decades it’s been the bedrock of stability in the region. The peace treaty between Egypt and Israel has been a key function of U.S. strategy in the region, so the question is if there is to be some form of regime change in Cairo will that disturb U.S. Egyptian relations in terms of Cairo being an American ally and of course will it change the nature of the Egyptian-Israeli relationship and that is the uncertain aspect of this entire unrest and transitionary period.
Read more: Dispatch: Egyptian Unrest Continues | STRATFOR

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Hi all,

Just wanted to pass on some information about a Rally for Tunisia and Egypt that’s happening on Saturday, January 29/11

Vancouver Public Library SquareRobson and Homer

1:00-3:00 PM

See video HERE

Video Transcript below:

Analyst Reva Bhalla outlines the issues at stake in the protests that have embroiled Lebanon and Egypt.

Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.

Protesters in Egypt and Lebanon have proclaimed today a “day of rage” with Lebanese Sunnis protesting against the nomination of the new prime minister, and Egyptians protesting against the Mubarak government. Now the situations in Egypt and Lebanon have very, very little in common, if anything at all. So we’ll begin by looking at the situation in Lebanon.

Hezbollah with a backing of Syria engineered a collapse of the Lebanese government. Once the Lebanese government fell apart, premonitions of a return to civil war started making their appearance in the Lebanese media. In this whole scenario though, Syria and Hezbollah knew that they held the upper hand. If anyone wanted to avoid a bigger conflict, and that includes the Americans, the Saudis, and many of Lebanon’s own factions, then they would have to come to Syria to negotiate on Syrian terms. Those terms meant getting rid of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri and also neutralizing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigating his father’s murder, and that investigation was putting at risk a number of Hezbollah and Syrian officials.

Now a compromise candidate of sorts, Najib Mikati, has been nominated as Lebanon’s next prime minister. According to Lebanese law, the prime minister has to be Sunni. This is causing a lot of anger among Lebanon’s Sunnis who are outraged that Lebanon’s next prime minister is someone who’s been nominated by their archrivals in Hezbollah. Now we have a situation where Lebanon’s Sunnis are the ones leading violent protests in the country and everyone is appealing for calm. And again this works in Hezbollah’s favor, for once they are not seen as the propagators of violence, the Sunnis are, and Hezbollah is using this to sow more divisions within the Sunni camp. Now as everyone is trying to diffuse this crisis, the terms for a compromise are going to have to entail neutralizing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigation into the al-Hariri murder, and that means largely absolving Syria and many Hezbollah officials of blame for that murder. In the end, the Saudis and the Americans will have miscalculated while the Syrians will have returned to their preeminent position in Lebanon.   In Egypt, lots of fear is rising over whether Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will be dealt the same fate as Tunisian President Ben Ali who was overthrown in a popular revolt. In trying to take advantage of the Tunisia situation, a small group of Facebook mobilized protesters, called the April 6 Youth Movement, have mobilized today in this “day of rage.”

This is where we really need to factor in the differences between Egypt and Tunisia, and one the biggest factors to look at is the U.S. The broader strategic interest for the United States right now is to maintain stability within Egypt and to ensure a smooth transition between Mubarak and his successor. Now this is not only vital to the U.S. interest, but also to the Israelis, who do not want to see a crisis erupted in the country that could be exploited by Egypt’s well-organized Islamist movement. So amidst all of these concerns and these protests it’s very little coincidence that the Egyptian army chief of staff is in Washington right now, with the U.S. getting assurances from the Egyptian army that the army will not abandon Mubarak like the Tunisian army did with Ben Ali.

Read more: Dispatch: ‘Day of Rage’ in the Middle East | STRATFOR

Professor Faris asked me to pass this along…

1)   Tariq Ramadan

                The Quest for Meaning and Pluralism

                 Public Lecture and Book Signing.

                This lecture is free and open to the public.
                Reservations are required. (www.sfu.ca/reserve or email ccsmsc@sfu.ca)

                Thursday, February 3, 2011
                7:00 pm

                Simon Fraser University
                Segal Graduate School of Business
                500 Granville Street, Vancouver

2)       Spring 2011 Lecture Series

Tariq Ramadan, Oxford University
The Quest for Meaning and Pluralism
February 3, 2010, 7:00pm

Graham E. Fuller, Simon Fraser University
Reflections on a World Without Islam
February 22, 2011, 7:00pm

Tarek Elhaik, San Francisco State University
Resonances: Clinical & Sacred Life: Mounir
Fatmi’s Tete Dure and Sylvia
Gruner’s El Nacimiento de Venus.
March 17, 2011, 7:00pm

Peyman Vahabzadeh, University of Victoria
A Generation’s Odyssey: Rebellious Action and
the Creation of Social Epic in Iran in the 1970s
Co-hosted by Shahrvand BC Weekly
April 1, 2011, 7:00pm

For more information visit: www.sfu.ca/ccsmsc