{"id":136,"date":"2012-10-28T08:18:24","date_gmt":"2012-10-28T15:18:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/?p=136"},"modified":"2012-10-28T08:20:39","modified_gmt":"2012-10-28T15:20:39","slug":"week-6-the-road-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/2012\/10\/28\/week-6-the-road-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Week 6 &#8211; The Road Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We were talking about\u00a0sustainability in FRE 515 this week. During the class, maybe one of our classmates raised concerns and questions about managing the study load and pressure during the crunch time with exams and ongoing course work. \u00a0Professor Ron mentioned about prioritizing which is a key in time management. \u00a0Priorities change as things come up and down. For example, these few weeks, \u00a0exam and presentation matters have come to the top of priorities, so the majority of my time, thoughts and emotions have been on them as well. \u00a0 Another comment made by\u00a0classmate\u00a0Gabi during the class discussion has also stuck in my head, which is\u00a0lack of sleep for consecutive days or a longer time period is not sustainable for a person. \u00a0Arise from the above comments, I want to be honest about the following:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>I haven&#8217;t been able to keep an eye on the commodity market these days; I haven&#8217;t been up to date with the relevant daily news which creates difficulty for myself to make decisions in trading.<\/li>\n<li>I realized that I was unfocused and careless after I found out a few mistakes I made in the trading this week; \u00a0One of them was a major mistake and it created a very panicky day for me.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<div>I sincerely hope that after this week&#8217;s Midterm (our last midterm), I will be able to fully come back to the trading mode.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Anyhow, for the mistake I made in my price limit order last Friday (misplacing the number of contracts and price limit), I ended up holding 37 short Corn contracts (C2Z). \u00a0I am very worried about how to properly offset them. \u00a0I have placed the Stop Loss order and Price limit order to try to offset them on Monday.\u00a0I basically don&#8217;t hope to lose (too much) over these contracts rather than make a big gain. (I&#8217;d really love your comment on this.)<\/div>\n<div>C2Z:<\/div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>My <strong>Existing Short<\/strong>s: \u00a0Price-in: 739.75, \u00a0Current Price: 737.75 \u00a0(gaining $100 on each contract)<\/li>\n<li>My <strong>Pending Longs<\/strong> to offset the above: \u00a0Price Limit: 735 , Stop Loss: 740<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div>On the other hand, I anticipate the prices of the crops to rise on Monday based on the following factors:<\/div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>The crude futures went back up last Friday before the market closed after a two-week fall. \u00a0I anticipate some rise on\u00a0corn and soybeans on Monday attributed to the spillover effect from the crude futures<a href=\"#ref\"><sup>[1]<\/sup><\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Asian currencies are strengthening<a href=\"#ref\"><sup>[2]<\/sup><\/a> which would likely to stimulate more imports to the region.<\/li>\n<li>Good harvest news on corn and soybeans in Canada<a href=\"#ref\"><sup>[3]<\/sup><\/a><\/li>\n<li>Hurricane Sandy is coming to hit the northeast US (the graph below shows its strength and path). \u00a0Although it&#8217;s a Category 1 hurricane it&#8217;s predicted to become a worst hit to the area in 100 years<a href=\"#ref\"><sup>[1]<\/sup><\/a>. \u00a0The fear and the damage from this Hurricane would probably drive the prices up on Monday. \u00a0(drive up the cash prices, the basis, and the futures prices)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<figure id=\"attachment_141\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-141\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/files\/2012\/10\/at201218_5day.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-141 \" title=\"Hurricane Sandy Oct 28, 2012\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/files\/2012\/10\/at201218_5day-300x225.gif\" alt=\"Hurricane Sandy Oct 28, 2012\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/files\/2012\/10\/at201218_5day-300x225.gif 300w, https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/files\/2012\/10\/at201218_5day.gif 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-141\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hurricane Sandy Oct 28, 2012<br \/>Source: wunderground.com<a href=\"#ref\"><sup>[4]<\/sup><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>I will keep an eye on the daily News to correct or help further predictions over the week.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"ref\">References:<\/a><\/p>\n<p>1.\u00a0Shenk,\u00a0Mark and Zhou, Moming. (2012, Oct 26).\u00a0<em>Crude Pares Second Weekly Loss as Hurricane Approaches.\u00a0<\/em>Retrieved from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2012-10-26\/oil-fluctuates-as-u-s-economy-grows-more-than-forecast.html\">http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2012-10-26\/oil-fluctuates-as-u-s-economy-grows-more-than-forecast.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p>2. Teso,Yumi.\u00a0(2012, Oct 26).\u00a0<em>Asian Currencies Strengthen in Week on Signs of China Recovery.<\/em>Retrieved from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2012-10-26\/asian-currencies-strengthen-in-week-on-signs-of-china-recovery.html\">http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2012-10-26\/asian-currencies-strengthen-in-week-on-signs-of-china-recovery.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p>3. \u00a0\u00a0Shiells,\u00a0Terryn . Service Canada.<em id=\"ctl00_ctl00_websiteContent_leftwideContent_storyAuthor\">\u00a0<\/em>(2012, Oct 26)<em>.Ontario soybean\/corn crops yielding better than expected.\u00a0<\/em>Retrieved\u00a0from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.grainews.ca\/news\/ontario-soybean-corn-crops-yielding-better-than-expected\/1001799451\/\">http:\/\/www.grainews.ca\/news\/ontario-soybean-corn-crops-yielding-better-than-expected\/1001799451\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>4. woundergroud.com. (2012, Oct 28).\u00a0<em>Hurricane Sandy<\/em>. Retrieved from \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.wunderground.com\/tropical\/tracking\/at201218_5day.html?MR=1\">http:\/\/www.wunderground.com\/tropical\/tracking\/at201218_5day.html?MR=1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We were talking about\u00a0sustainability in FRE 515 this week. During the class, maybe one of our classmates raised concerns and questions about managing the study load and pressure during the crunch time with exams and ongoing course work. \u00a0Professor Ron mentioned about prioritizing which is a key in time management. \u00a0Priorities change as things come [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14442,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[568640,593792],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-road-ahead","category-trading-game"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14442"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=136"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":146,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136\/revisions\/146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/rosonluo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}