These old foes are back at it again: India and Pakistan, the world’s second and sixth most populous nations respectively, with a history of conventional wars, are at loggerheads after last weeks attack at an Indian Army camp in the disputed valley of Kashmir. Drumbeats of war are spearheaded by the electronic and print media on both sides of the border. Primer Minister Narendra Modi of India has openly expressed India’s desire to inflict punitive measures on Pakistan and increased diplomatic efforts on India’s part to isolate Pakistan on the international front. Meanwhile Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif while addressing the United Nations General Assembly in New York has categorically rejected any involvement in the Uri base camp attack, which killed 18 Indian Army soldiers.
The recent spate of violence that gripped the Kashmir valley began this summer with the killing of a young social media activist Burhan Wani. Kashmir which has a long history of being the centerpiece of confrontation between these two nuclearly armed nations is once being touted as a “nuclear flashpoint”. Here are 7 reasons why a full-scale war is not likely to break out between the old enemies anytime soon.
4 reasons India and Pakistan will Not Go to War.
1.Nuclear Deterrence
The maxim of nuclear deterrence in the subcontinent is more relevant now in then ever before. India tested its first nuclear missile in 1974 code naming it operation “Smiling Buddha” followed by a series of second tests in 1998. Pakistan followed suit conducting its own tests nuclear tests in the aftermath of India’s 1998 tests. “The countries have not engaged in a full scale war since ” writes Micheal Kuggelman of the Woodrow Wilson institute in Washington DC. Pakistan, however has opted not to be bound by the “No-First-Strike policy” to which India is a signatory claimant. “The mismatch of conventional military force heavily in India’s favor” adds to the security paradigm of Pakistan’s strategy , “meaning any use of substantive military force by India would endanger Pakistan’s sovereignty could conceivably be responded with a nuclear strike” continues Micheal Kuggelman a resident expert on South Asia at the Wilson Centre. Therefore, India is likely to tread carefully, weighing all options, considering possibilities of light surgical strikes, rather than engage its Army.
2. Who’s got what to Lose
“India with a two and a half trillion dollar economy paired with global ambitions, has a [much] greater pain threshold” writes Cyril Almeida , resident editor of Dawn news. The software and IT export-hub of the world has teeming metropolis and a full scale war would set its economy back years. On the contrary, Pakistan an agrarian economy with a GDP growth rate half of India’s has seemingly less to lose , tilting the deterrent equation further into its favour. There have been calls within India to cut off or divert the water supply of Pakistan three major river systems flowing through the Kashmir valley. However, “this will give Pakistan an excuse to Internationalize the Kashmir issue further” writes Jayanth Jacob for India’s leading daily the Hindustan Times.
3. Lack of evidence and Media Hype
A major piece of the puzzle that has gone unnoticed in the current debacle is the linking of Pakistan with the Uri army base camp attack. While the state of Pakistan has issued a categorical denial to any involvement, non-state actors. i.e. = militant groups which have operated within its territory in the past or indigenous separatist Kashmiri groups are the likely perpetrators . However to date no group has claimed responsibility which has been a known modus-operandi and the “Indian media has been quick to jump conclusions after a release of a viral whatsapp video thus stirring up a controversy” writes Shivam Vij the contributing editor of Huffington Post India. “At the best of times, the Indian media is pro-establishment–particularly on foreign policy. In matters of National Security, the media goes a step further and allows itself to become a mouthpiece of the government”, he adds further. Therefore after the hype dies down, it would be a calculated move on Indian defence establishment’s part to gauge whether to engage in a war with Pakistan or look for the root causes within its occupation of Kashmir.
4. Strong ties between the Civil Society
One intangible factor which often gets overlooked is the relationship between the civil societies of the two countries. Ever since gaining independence from the British rule in 1947, India and Pakistan have shown a remarkable propensity towards encouraging the flow of cultural icons, namely from the film, music, sports industries and even academia to continue the exchnage ideas. The process of dialogue and exchange has accelerated during periods of warmth notably in the early part of 2000s when the Indian cricket team visited Pakistan. And prior to that the then Indian Prime Minister crossed the border on a bus and signed a declaration of peace in Lahore. Hence, there is precedence of resiliency in this relationship between two foe’s who share many commonalities including language, culture and history.