Stay Calm

My portfolio return remains negative in the 3^rd week. Here are my week’s trading summary and portfolio overview for these three weeks:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seasonal harvest pressure along with USDA’s Grain Stocks report of better than expected soybean yields give a negative tone to the soybean market at the beginning of this week. Then I covered the one unit of soybean I shorted last week. If I were patient enough, I would earned more in this sharp drop instead of suffering a big loss in last week. The story was that last week I shorted three units of soybean, but I was so impulsive to deal with an immediate cover when the price showed a slight growing tendency (impulse is the devil!!). But I believes it was never too late to learn about this, and I will keep patient when facing the fluctuation of the price. Further, according to weather forecasting, the increasing rainfall on Wednesday till weekend is going to slow down the harvest of soybean, especially in the Midwest and the northwest of the US, which caused the price increasing for these days. Another lesson I learned here is that pay more attention on the weather condition, because the weather forecast serves as a vane of the future price. (The graph below show the fluctuation of the price of soybean this week.)

 

 

 

 

 

There remained a short position of wheat with a negative payoff. Since the price kept higher than the price I shorted ($6.55), this week I did not have any movement on it. The current continuous growth of wheat price reached at the peak since the middle of July on speculation that the United States may be in better export demand. Lower planted area in Ukraine, possible new demand from Brazil and China and short-covering by investors all supported wheat. In addition, the UNFAO lower the yield of wheat on 2013/14 from 709.8 to 7.046 million metric tons, and also lower the estimated production in South American. So, all the reports and new I read indicated the increase of the price of wheat futures. But I kept still to wait for the expected export report released by USDA. Unfortunately, Due to the lapse in federal government funding, this website is not available. It just liked sand in the gear on my trading!! As a result, I decided to keep it even though I was bleeding, because the price will definitely drop to $6.55 again.

 

 

 

 

 

By the way, I started my plan B on the trading game. It is a time-consuming strategy but it really worked (I earned about $200 on quick covering corn, also it would help me earn it a lot on soybean if had not sold it accidently!!). I call it Quick Money. What we should do is just make a quick deal based on the most possible direction and simple keep eyes on the change of price then just cover or sell your commodities to close if you can earn a little more than the transaction cost. By this means, I used to get a little of profit in the stock, and I hope it still works in the future on trading futures!

 

 

 

 

Thanks for reading,

Sang Sheng