Greed
This is a busy week with the still negative portfolio return on my trading game. Here are my portfolio summary and 4weeks’ account overview.
My ‘Quick Money’ strategy seems not as powerful as last week. I deal with a long position of a unit of corn at a relatively low price, and waited for the increase of the price. It did grew a little after a short time, but I was not willing to sell it because of tiny profit. After then the price began dropping, and I suffered a loss on this transaction. What I realize from it is the main idea for my quick money strategy is Quick Reaction for small income, however, greed totally ruins it by increasing my opportunity cost. If I just sell it to close even with a small profit, I will have time and energy to focus on another trading. So I make modify the rule for this strategy, I will make sure to increase quantity of trades to guarantee the amount of profit. (The chart below shows my trading details.)
What I learned from my short-term strategy is also applicable for my long-term trading. I cover the remained unit of soybean immediately when I found that the soybean began to make a profit. Because USDA is away, it is hard for me to have a reference on my expectation, such as outlook of a specific agriculture commodity, world agricultural production Data, and the estimated report. So, I think I had better cover to close in such an unpredictable condition.
As for the wheat I shorted two weeks ago, the price shows a continuous rising trend due to positive export potential. Renewed concerns over a smaller Argentina wheat plantation, which could push more exports to Brazil from the United States and Canada, which leads to the growth of price. Till now, I have experienced a -5.69% return on it, but I don’t want to pull out since there are still one month and half to make the delivery. So I just keep the contract here.
So, what’s my plan for next week? Continue to implement my ‘Quick Money’, keep the new rule in mind. Hope I can do a lot of trades with profits through it next week.
