Closure
The last week! It seems that it is impossible for me to achieve the breakeven in last. But it is ok, what counts is the experience, rather than the profit. With our trading game coming to the closure, I believe it is time for me to do a summary note to recap what I have learned in 6 week’s trading. The graph below is the portfolio overview for these 6 weeks.
In this period of time, I focused on the soybean, corn and wheat trade. From the micro perspective, what effects the price most I think is the weather condition, and watching the weather forecasting is the most direct way to do the prediction. The rainfall/drought means the growth/drop of the production, which in turn leads to the higher/lower supply making the increase/decrease of the contract price. In addition, I believe monetary factor has a significant impact on price as well. For instance, price of soybean rose this week as the dollar slumped, improving the prospects for exports from the U.S…Also, in last, weak dollar sent the wheat futures price higher on Thursday and Friday. Basically, the supply and demand factors, such as production and consumption, import and export, are the key issues to decide whether I should go long or short for different kind of commodities. On the other hand, the macro factor like the recent stability of the economy, the political policies and events, these are also the cause of the change of price. However, in my trading game, I did not consider a lot about those parameters because I am not so familiar with the macro issues, which remains a lesson to be learn.
By the way, in terms of my ‘quick money’, I am not sure whether the professional traders use this kind of strategy. But I believe, if you have time and energy to implement it, you will make it. Although its small profits each time, the huge quantity of trades will bring you a considerable payoff. It is quite a pity for me that I cannot pay attention to the trading game every hours or even every day, therefore, I was not able to buy low sell high for so many times.
