{"id":21,"date":"2013-09-27T03:06:09","date_gmt":"2013-09-27T10:06:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/?p=21"},"modified":"2013-09-28T00:11:41","modified_gmt":"2013-09-28T07:11:41","slug":"dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/2013\/09\/27\/dilemma\/","title":{"rendered":"Dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"

Another busy week has gone, but the situation is not so good for my trading, because I am still involved in the trade of soybean with a negative return. (The graphs presented below is my portfolio summary.)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to the news<\/a>, due to area expansion and the weather condition, the estimated yield of soybean is going up. Usually, the production and supply have great impact on the price, therefore, I decided to short a couple of units because of my expectation on a falling tendency. Then, I faced the dilemma that short order must not conflict with an existing \u201clong\u201d position. That is to say, I had to sell the soybean I bought before with negative profit, and definitely I would lose a lot of money. But I did want to seize the opportunity to earn more, since the expected production showed quite a certain trend of decline on soybean price. I pulled out to short, which caused me a loss at $1985 for just 1 unit (bought it at $13.54). The next day after I made the deal, I found it was an extremely bad decision, because the price of soybean started growing up, which totally went the opposite direction as expected\u2026dilemma again, pull out or calm down? I suffer another loss at $1245 when I decided to cover two of contracts to make a clearance. This week sucked, I stopped trading after these tremendous loss and I am still figuring out the plan for next week. (The graph below shows the price trend of soybean.)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So what I learned from this week? \u00a0I think I cannot trust so much on the effect of supply on the future price, because the estimated supply is also figured out by uncertainty. When I use uncertainty to predict the future, the outcome will be definitely uncertain. Also, I am supposed to focus on micro and macro (no longer yield-oriented prediction only and pay attention to other factors). As a trader making money off of price movements, maybe I can just focus on the movement of price to make a quick money (like what we do on stock). Additionally, in order to lower the risk, I should no longer put all my eggs on a basket. Hope I can make a break-even next week.<\/p>\n

BTW, share a new place to get agricultural news which I believe is better than Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

Here you go:<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.agrimoney.com\/1\/commodities\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Good luck next week!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Another busy week has gone, but the situation is not so good for my trading, because I am still involved in the trade of soybean with a negative return. (The graphs presented below is my portfolio summary.)             According to the news, due to area expansion and the weather condition, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19435,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[838829],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mfre"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19435"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21\/revisions\/38"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ubc.ca\/sangsheng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}