Perspectives on Peace: An Examination of Post-Conflict Societies

Sorry but I’m bored and got caught up in your questions, plus it’s similar to questions on my paper. Here goes:

The best way to find total bilateral aid disbursements is to google “aid at a glance [country]” which are published by the OECD. It lists the top 10 donors to a developing country or the top ten recipients from a country. In this case, Canada and Uganda don’t have significant enough of an aid relationship to fit into either of the top 10 though :s
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/21/44284003.gif
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/12/32/1883200.gif

I use this when I’m doing papers sometimes. It helps me figure out which stakeholders (developed states) seem to have interest in a particular country/region and can often lead to key insights into explaining a country’s trajectory and possible future.

With regard to your question about Canada’s role in the LRA conflict, I think the most recent ICG report gets it right: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/uganda/157-lra-a-regional-strategy-beyond-killing-kony.aspx
The LRA is transcending borders, so the most effective way to eliminate them is a collaborative approach between the militaries of the 4 countries it has operated in (Sudan, DRC, CAR and Uganda). The African Union has recognized this and is pursuing such initiatives as joint border patrols and shared intelligence so that essentially the combined military forces can bring the LRA to its knees. Shaheen posted an article from a couple of weeks ago about this.

The ICG report also points out that in a post-conflict setting, a lasting solution depends on the Ugandan gov’t’s willingness to give the North their due inclusion in the political process and economic development. Here is where Canada comes in, as a donor, listed in the report in recommendation #14. The US is taking care of military training and support, but reconciliation is often under-emphasized. Canada could support local NGOs in promoting post-conflict development in Acholi communities. We could also try to help tie the severed link between the government and the North with our soft power, finding incentives for both sides to agree to improved collaboration in the future.

The huffington post article above also brings up a key insight about conflict situations in the developing world: there is often more incentive to be on the path to peace than to actually attain peace itself. Ethiopia receives more aid than any other African country now, largely because the US sees it as a bastion for pro-western democracy fighting against the evils of Islamic militancy in the Horn of Africa. Yes, Somalia’s al-Shabaab is a son-of-a-bitch to have around your borders, but this threat becomes less of a threat for a price. As in $3.3bn a year in total foreign aid. Ethiopia is ecstatic to have US military support as it is accompanied by economic aid which is helping to create enormous growth. If al-Shabaab were defeated, Ethiopia would all but collapse due to its reliance on aid for its impressive economic growth.

Same goes for Uganda. The US and Uganda are great friends, and the assistance is helping the latter’s soldiers to collectively gain status as a premier African military which will retain its technical skills even after the US leaves. In the past, I think that the Ugandan military hasn’t been entirely committed to eliminating the LRA because they more or less don’t give a shit about the North. I feel like this has changed now as everyone in the region is just generally tired of the LRA’s destruction, and there is wider support for collaboration to defeat them. My sense is that the LRA is on its way out, but luckily for Museveni, the US aid budget recognizes that Ugandan troops are still active in the AU’s mission in Somalia. So in summary, when analyzing conflict situations, it’s worth looking at a government’s incentive to achieve peace as opposed to being on the path to that peace and continuing to receive substantial aid.

Earlier today CBC released a story that suggests the LRA is much weaker than it once was in numerical strength, at just a few hundred. http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/11/02/lra-uganda-numbers-dwindling.html
This looks very promising, but I’m also wary of any figure the Ugandan government gives. I’m slightly comforted that a US-based group gave a similar number though.

I don’t think this article would undermine your argument if you wanted to argue for a peacekeeping force. The Americans are throwing money at the problem rather than risking their own troops (or NATO troops), a peacekeeping force would be different. But from what I understand a peacekeeping force (under the UN) is not authorized to use force except for in self-defence so I don’t know how that would work.

I didn’t know that I needed to approve both of these comments before they were published so they may have not been posted officially yet. Anyways, thank you both for your thoughts and input!
Googling “aid at a glance” was super helpful for me….as were both of your comments.

This has been a great forum to get ideas narrowed down.