In last week’s Road Ahead I wrote, “In the coming week, the first thing to do is to offset the short contract, because the price is most likely to continue running up” , but I actually waited until Wednesday to offset the C3H. I didn’t immediately offset because on one hand, I went into a lot of loss and wasn’t quite ready to “realize” it; and on the other hand, price decreased several cents on Monday morning, and I was observing to see if it would decline more. But price stay around 760 cent, and I offset the contract at a price of 759.5 on Wednesday for the fear of price keep increasing.

I so should have stayed in short position, because by the end of this trading week, the average of the various agricultural research groups’ estimates for US corn output and yield are 10.754bn bushels and 123.6 bushels per acre, which are higher than the current USDA release last week (10.727bn bushels and 122.8 bushels per acre). This release pushed price down, and if I stayed in short, I wouldn’t have to bear the realized loss.