In the 1st trading week, I followed some interesting sources and went short on soybean, and turned out it worked. So this week, I visited the same information site and hoping I could get what I need.

http://corncommentary.com/2012/09/24/no-farm-bill-now/

http://www.ncga.com/drought

One of which is about farm bill is not going to happen this year, which underlines that exporter would be restricted, domestic supply would increase and price should be lowered. And the other report indicated the drought is getting alleviated, which indicated the same price trend( going down) as the first report.

I went sell for 1 contract of CH3 on Sept. 25th, the price-in of which was 748.25 cents. And it went quite well at the start. price fell (to 728.50 cents) as I expected on the first day and on the second day, price fell to 719.50 cent. I didn’t offset it because the I was hoping price to keep falling. But on the third transaction day, price increased dramatically! It got to 759.90 cent and I lost ( $7.5990-$7.4825)* 5000=$562.50.

Below is a report released on September 28, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). In which shown majority grains stock this year drop a lot. Corn stocks, down by 12 percent compared to last year.

http://t.co/Hb9V82eo

“Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2012 totaled 988 million bushels, down 12 percent from September 1, 2011. Of the total stocks, 314 million bushels are stored on farms, down slightly from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 675 million bushels, are down 17 percent from a year ago. The June – August 2012 indicated disappearance is 2.16 billion bushels, compared with 2.54 billion bushels during the same period last year.”

As learned in class, this release would reverse the commodity market, because now everyone believes price would increase by the future ending day due to stock scarcity.