source: CNN
With the US Election approaching in less than a month, the consequences of this grave decision will follow us for the majority of our time at Sauder. Should Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton be elected, the world economy, and certainly Canada’s, will deviate from the status quo. Both candidates’ position on economic policies will obviously affect us Canadians; especially because we are the number one trading partners to the States [1].
Incumbent President Obama’s push for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) allows for lower trade barriers to Canadian imports [2], a benefit to Canadians and a direct influence on Porter’s 5 forces. Contrarily to the TPP, the North American Free Trade Act (NAFTA) is negatively looked upon; many Americans see it as outdated and was a job breaker [3], calling for the renegotiation of the deal.
Interestingly, both candidates oppose the TPP, in addition, Clinton wants NAFTA renegotiated [4] and Trump is willing to remove it completely [5]. The two presidential hopefuls oppose Obama’s policies on trade because they believe it shifts focus away from American workers; and is therefore going to be unfavorable for Canadians. According to Curtis Kothe’s blog NAFTA is actually beneficial to free trade within the continent, especially in Canada. However with the onslaught of public opinion against NAFTA in the States [6], its reformation will be seen with either candidate; and Canada, will most likely loose out as a result.
The rejection of the Keystone Pipeline from Obama is supported by Clinton [7]. Trump however, is much in disagreement arguing that the profits are going to make the US rich again [8]. Trudeau’s dream for the pipeline ended as a result of President Obama, a President Trump will certainly revive that dream. Resulting in the introduction of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars of revenue over the years in both Canada and the United States [9]. Having said that, the implication of even a single oil spill will lead to disastrous environmental consequences as well as financial.
Historically, Democratic presidencies benefit the Canadian economy.
In my opinion, Hillary Clinton is undeniably the safer bet. She is a known quantity and won’t be unpredictable like Donald Trump; additionally, Democrats have proven to increase the Canadian economy. These external factors all relate to the Political and Economic aspects of the PEST analysis learned in class. Referring to Porter’s 5 forces, placing tariffs and removing trade agreements yields high barriers to entry especially for Canadians who want to expand to the States. With increasing difficulty, Canadians are limited and would have to stay local, thus decreasing economic growth. Overall, both candidates will limit the growth in Canadian economy; it’s just a matter of how drastic one goes compared to the latter.
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Citations
[1,5,8] @globeandmail. “How a Trump Presidency Would Affect Canada’s economy.” The Globe and Mail. N.p., 2016. Web. 16 Oct. 2016.
[2] “Why the TPP Is Such a Big-and Good-deal for Canada.” Macleansca. N.p., 2015. Web. 16 Oct. 2016.
[3,6] “Obama Defends Free Trade Push to Supporters: This Isn’t NAFTA.” Washington Post. The Washington Post, n.d. Web. 16 Oct. 2016.
[4] “Hillary Clinton Statement on Endorsement by the UAW.” Hillary Clinton Statement on Endorsement by the UAW. N.p., n.d. Web. 16 Oct. 2016.
[7] @globeandmail. “How a Clinton Presidency Would Affect Canada’s economy.” The Globe and Mail. N.p., 2016. Web. 16 Oct. 2016.
[9] @globeandmail. “Keystone XL: The Benefits and Costs of a Controversial Pipeline.” The Globe and Mail. CALGARY — The Globe and Mail, 2013. Web. 16 Oct. 2016.