Week 3–The Road Ahead–Exploring the way forward

I think the I still cannot figure out how to collect useful information and make my own prediction. At the begining of this week, I checked the base change and found that wheat price started a positive change.Therefore I offset all my short positions on W2Z and W3H. Then I hope the trade will not be delayed and I can realize around $500 gains. I would like to go back to focus on original information instead of news.

According to Wheat Outlook report from USDA, The world wheat production forecast for 2012/13 declined 4.1 million tons, driven by a major reduction for Russia. With reduced supplies, prospects for world wheat use are lower and ending stocks are projected slightly down. And also after collecting the data from Agrimoney.com, the growth rate of ending stocks for many important countries shows as following:

	India	Canada	Australia	Brazil	Russia	EU-27	United States
Ending stocks	12.53%	0.55%	-20.9%	-28.38%	-38.31%	-30.52%	-6.03%

All over the world, the ending stocks of wheat declined. And based on the past experience, I am still looking forward to an increase in the future July and Agust contract.