What I did last week—Almost nothing

This week, I just did one thing-offseting all my trades and wait to see. When I found that After the release of USDA monthly report on Supply/Demand and Crop production and soybean got crazy, I realized that I was late and can not buy a short position on it. I had to wait again. However it was so tricky that when the next day I tried to bought a short position on corn after a strike, trades were close. Therefore, for this week ,I have nothing to show but a bigger loss after offsetting everything. Here is my Ending balance as of 10-12-2012,

Position Value: $0.00
Cash Available: $37773.79
Equity:         $37773.79
Realized Gains: $-2227.50

I need to figure out what I am going to trade for making up for this big loss.

The Road Ahead–Long Position

The central idea to take away from this month’s Supply/Demand and Crop Production reports is that demand is still relatively strong giving the higher prices over the last couple of months. Although because of USAD report, the soybeans turned to be a higher supply than expected and corn and wheat got short and fluctuate back, export demand for soybeans, feed and ethanol for corn, and feed for wheat. As we move though this marketing year, export demand for wheat has strong potential to pick up significantly as the short production internationally will become  more and more apparent. And also, South America is in the heart of planting what could be a record crop, so whether in the southern hemisphere will have to be monitored closely throughout our winter season.

Based on above analysis, I would buy a long position on soybeans on the month before the harvest season.