The people of Japan are facing a unique set of social problems.  The post-war Baby Boomer generation are aging and the birth rate is declining which is leading to population decline.  A series of economic crises have taken a toll on the availability of secure, full time employment as temporary and part-time work is replacing previously stable lifetime employment among Japan’s thriving industrial sector. During times of economic prosperity, rural to urban migration has led to densely populated urban centers and it is estimated that over 90% of Japan’s population is urbanized (The World Factbook, 2018).  With years of inter-prefectural migration, there has been a major change to the structure of Japanese households; in particular, the country has seen a steady rise in the number of households with only a single occupant (Ronald, 2018).

High costs of living and a limited supply of low income and social housing options (Okamoto, 2016) can leave some urbanites vulnerable to economic shocks, especially the elderly or those with tenuous employment situations.  Moreover, economic shocks, although well known to the Japanese, are not the only threat facing Japanese society.  Geologic and meteorological hazards are an ever-present threat and earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons are well known in the region.  With the current economic climate and natural hazard risks in Japan, some populations may face higher degrees of vulnerability.  Even in the absence of crisis, many of Japan’s single, urban households are vulnerable to social isolation (Okamoto, 2016; Ronald, 2018).

It can be difficult to imagine experiencing isolation in the megacity of Tokyo, with a population of nearly 38 million in the metropolitan area; yet with the high cost of living and many single aged households, some scholars argue that social exclusion is a risk for many of Japan’s urban residents (Okamoto, 2016). Okamoto asserts that high costs of living and reduced access to community and basic services can lead to limited or restricted social participation.

Our research aims to identify these vulnerable populations in the megacity of Tokyo.  Specifically, we will use Japan’s census data to identify populations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area that are vulnerable to unforeseen shocks, notably, single person and elderly households.  After identifying concentrations of vulnerable households, we will analyze the spatial distributions and proximities to medical facilities and mass transit stations in order to identify populations that face increased risk of social isolation.